Still No Changes to $SPX Analysis Yet

We may use this count, which has particularly good balance (1:1) met within 3 points today:


And more locally we may still do this:


Caveats are this:

  1. It’s not good that we broke the June low. Given sentiment at that low, I expected it to hold, and
  2. I expected us to find strong institutional support here, and we haven’t seen a 3% intraday reversal here to indicate to us that kind of support

If we are finishing a structure of this degree, it should turn tremendously and today’s small EOD rally is meek. If the decline isn’t over, I don’t really have a good idea where we’ll end up. This is a good place, but we still haven’t seen a strong rally yet. I don’t see many great places for a count like my greater count to end. And that might mean I need a different “big” count, and I don’t really know what that might be. All of this is forgiven if we get the rally here.

At any rate, interestingly, breadth improved dramatically today:


In sum, I hope we go up. We have a lot of evidence mounting that suggests that we should. I don’t want to be bullish for the sake of being bullish, but I’d like that evidence we’re seeing to point to something.

Today looked a lot worse than it was: most of the decline was just giving back the gap up. And at the end of the day, we closed over all the intraday lows, and closed over yesterday’s lows, and we closed back above the June low. But still no big rally.

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