An Alternate (and Target) If We Breach the Lows

I want to pick up the thought from earlier this evening. I suggested that it’s possible that a low is in. But also that there’s some things that bug me about that thought. I do sort of think that when we bottom, we’ll have a 200-300 point intraday green dildo candle. Maybe, let’s see.

At any rate, I like the idea of a retest of the low to hit that magical fib. But, it’s still odd to me that we broke the June low, which I don’t think we should have done. It makes it possible that that was warning us that we may head deeper. Given the sentiment at that low, a low like that should have held, and there should have been big buyers there, and there isn’t yet and we’re at that spot.

So, I know what I’ll do if we keep going up. I also know what I will do if we hit 3621 and get the big green dildo candle. But will a simple retest of yesterday’s low really be a good bear trap? I’m thinking maybe not. What if we break 3621?

I need to have a count that I can use that has good internal and external fibs—but lower, and so I’ve done that work tonight. We can count the whole structure (still as a big A-B-C), but with a whole host of fibs coming in right at about 3400. The broad view is this:

SPX

Target is the orange box.

Zooming in a bit, we see this:

SPX

And you can see as we zoom in and add internal wave degrees, they start stacking up with good bibs in that box.

And zooming in even more we can count 5 waves down for blue “a,” a flat for blue “b” (the same flat I was concerned about earlier), and if we sink, we’re in blue “c”:

SPX

Blue c should itself be an impulse wave (5 waves down on its own).

So that’s what I think happens if we break the lows. Maybe it makes sense, I don’t know. If everyone knows we’re oversold and due for a bounce, and so covered, and if everyone who thought we were about to crash now doesn’t think so because BOE, and they were let off so gently this morning without a gap, then maybe those most wanting a crash here actually miss it, dunno.

That’s a 9% drop. A bit of a doozy. So that’s the plan ok? Careful at the lows, watch out for big reversal at 3621, that fails, I will be looking 200+ below.


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