The $SPX Crash Alt (With Targets)

If there is a liquidity crisis unfolding and CB’s are too slow to respond (don’t forget, they intervened in the COVID crash in late February and it was not enough—that caused a pause only). So even if they murmur support, if the market doesn’t think it’s enough, it will keep falling until it gets enough.

The stuff going on the pension funds is a concern. It can produce contagion, and quickly, as everyone pulls back hard—and I mean the big boys. And if they pull back hard, it will cause tremors.

IF that does happen (I don’t know that it will), here is what those tremors may look like.

My 3400 target is also an ideal target for a “Wave 3.” After that, it should be messy, with a seizure with six final swings or so (probably 5 for the pink 4, then a last drop for the pink 5 [of yellow c]). It’s still a giant 3-wave a-b-c in the end.

SPX

The key for this is: 200-week simple moving average. IF we do go to 3400 and rally, but that rally doesn’t recapture that moving average (it can poke above it in a fakeout, it needs to test it as support) then I would be open to a further 400 points down after that. And it will be messy, and confusing to many, I would expect. So, we should at least keep this in mind because if there is a liquidity crisis caused by the collapsing bond market, we shouldn’t take that lightly at all.


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