It remains possible that a low is in.
That said, while we did break free from the green channel, we were rejected at the orange parallel rails. And we were rejected from the gap, which we were trying to fill. Filling the gap would have coincided with breaking the orange rails, and it would have been better.
The structure can still be counted very bearishly:
There is wave balance at today’s high, and all we have done is continue to make lower lows and lower highs. I was hoping (for the bullish case) to see us break above the green 2 (we still may).
But, I also am not happy with the dollar, as it’s not breaking down from this bearish wedge and it remains above a very long-term trend line:
I can’t rule out this strengthening again. The overthrow looks a bit big. So maybe it’s not a bearish wedge.
And the VIX is poised at the very upper edge of its huge red wedge and is in a bull flag (orange):
I would rather have seen this break down more seriously (it still may). I don’t like that it has made a higher low on a smaller timeframe while in the same time, the S&P has made a higher high.
In sum: we can go shooting up from here, as we’ve just tested an important moving average. And yet, if they do want to completely rug us, all of the ingredients for that are also simultaneously present here. I am feeling cautious here and remain majority short with some long hedges as ridiculous as that given how I had been hoping to find a major low. But I really would rather see a very big rally coming out a low of this degree. And though today was a good start, I am worried that almost everyone has just breathed a collective sigh of relief. I want to buy real fear, and people suddenly don’t seem too worried all of a sudden—bulls and bears. So, let’s see what happens.
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