$SPX Update

If we were facing global catastrophe and they had wanted to rug us, doing so at the 200-week moving average was one place they could have done so. And the second opportunity they had was at the close yesterday, where we had a good 1-2 setup with the VIX poised in a bull flag, etc. The risk was high, because if we were going to crash, we would have badly gapped through the 200-week, or they could have done what they did yesterday: shove everyone out, then dump overnight.

Since no rug pull yet, and to the contrary, a powerful rally, I am less convinced that we are in danger (though it’s still possible). If we stay elevated, I would expect the low to be in. We may count this an an impulse wave, like this:


If we continue to move up and to the right over the next few days and get a full 5-wave pattern up, then this will look good. After the 5 full waves complete, we should then see a retracement for green 2. The dollar continues to come down (but remains above its long-term trend line, so there is still some risk). And Bitcoin has broken above its long-term down trend line. That is all very positive. Bear in mind: the last time Bitcoin did this, it was a trap, and I don’t know if this one will be, too.

But, let’s see how this continues to unfold. I have closed my call hedges and reduced my puts. I will now wait to see if we can get a full 5-wave structure here, or whether we suddenly drop—but this feels like a very firm bid.

Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.

2 thoughts on “$SPX Update”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *