A Few Thoughts on $SPX

I haven’t much to say today. If the big broadening formation is going to fail, we should eventually see some bearish price action. (I have adopted that count that uses the broadening formation from futures for cash now, as it has some advantages—and I will discuss it more in detail later if we begin to fall).

It is possible that today’s drop was a 1, and if we don’t take out yesterday’s high, then this rally a 2:

SPX

This count is a little suspicious because wave “twos” are typically not so goddamned deep. That’s a very deep retracement. It doesn’t break any rules so long as it stays below the high, so it’s possible and we would need to see an obvious 3rd wave down next.

We have been completely glued to 3780:

SPX

Are they just distributing more up here?

If we don’t see lower prices, maybe we’re in an even larger distribution, like this:

SPX

If so, we could even stay up here for days and days. Don’t know. Long distributions need to be counted some way, and they’re usually “B-Waves,” and I don’t know what I would want to do with a B-Wave here. We should already probably be finishing a B-Wave if that’s what the “Broadening Formation” is (and that’s what it should be). So, hmm. A little unsure here.

And unlike Bitcoin’s last breakout attempt (which failed dramatically), this one hasn’t yet:

BTC

And in fact, it’s retested the trend line and the famous 2018 high, too. So, I will need to see what happens tomorrow I suspect.


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