We may count the greater structure as a “Triple Three” correction (discussed here), but it is still also possible to count it as a simpler, 3-wave structure. One reason to do so is this terrific fib relationship that we hit today on the kisser:
On this more straightforward count, Yellow “c” is 1.272 times the length of Yellow “a.” A nice picture if this is complete. It’s ultimately immaterial whether it’s a triple 3 or an a-b-c, if it’s done, it’s done.
We certainly have sentiment right where it needs to be, etc.
There is long-term divergence in breadth versus price:
We did manage to get a VIX Bollinger Band reversal buy signal today.
And if this is an accumulation, it can often end with a “spring,” which is a violent move lower to scare the bejeezus out of everyone:
And today’s BOE announcement could have been the excuse for that. Also we still have things like the dollar (discussed here), which may be putting in a macro, multi-year top.
Though I am open the the various bearish counts (they are the most sensible ways to try to count this decline, given the apparent macro environment), my belief that it is consensus to expect a full-blown 5-wave move lower from here disinclines me to it. Hell, if 10/5 was a big “4” (for instance you can look here for that), all you need anyways for the “5,” is a new low, and we got that. So, even on that bearish count, it can be complete here. So let’s see!
3 thoughts on “And Just a Couple More Things to Point Out”
Are you saying the spring should be in the box or below the box like a failed breakdown?
Any violent move will do. Doesn’t have to break to new lows, but may. Today may have been good enough for that.