$SPX New Low

By taking out the 9/30 low, they just slathered up all liquidity there, and we’re also under the 200-week SMA as well, so probably plenty under that as well.

IF—IF—we stop bleeding, I would want to interpret the difficult-to-understand thing we’re in as a falling, expanding ending diagonal, like this:

SPX

I have a feeling (it’s just my gut—like my gut told me to hedge for today; but it’s not always right) that there are way too many bears at the moment. So, let me a show you this count that can say the whole thing’s done. It’s a “Triple Three,” which is like the “Double Three” discussed here but it doesn’t require another leg down later and fits the big bullish wedge better. In other words, a “Triple Three” (W-X-Y-X-Z) can be done here.

All it will take is Putin capitulating (he really might), a Fed that hikes one more time but then signals a pause, and any CPI that isn’t awful.

This is what it looks like backed out:

SPX

So, if we find support and retake the 200-week and get reasonable news from Putin/Powell/CPI, I won’t rule out a low.

There are a ton of puts in the system, sentiment is trashed, won’t take much to send us up if they want to. I have closed my put hedges and added a few more longs, and will wait to see what develops here. I just have a feeling that we can’t all be bearish here and also be right at the same time. So, let’s see.


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