If we look at this in a basic way, we channelled on the way up, and it looked good as five waves. Using that channel, I was able to play especially the wave 4 trading range to my advantage and I caught two important parts of the final advance (including that gap up), and then built a short position up there near the August high.
Now on the way down, we are also channeling, and it can be argued that it, too is a 5-wave pattern.
Some differences are this: on the way up, we had really good fibs, on the way down, the fibs (for an impulse wave) are not precise at all. There is no clear relationship between the 1 and 3, etc. So it’s possible that the decline is not an impulse wave, or that it’s something grisly like a 1-2-1-2 (that would be bad).
Also up at the high, it felt like it wasn’t going to top, and it did. And maybe here it doesn’t feel like it’s going to bottom, but it will. We will have to see. It sort of feels like it wants to just slide right off the earth (and it might, I don’t know).
But, a 5-wave pattern does look about done.
Now also, the most local structure looks odd to me, and is hard for me to comprehend. But just perusing it, it may actually be a lot like a structure we had up at the top. For that, I will need to zoom in.
Up at the high, we had this strange, slightly ambiguous structure (at the red arrow). We went down, then sort of triangulated, which seemed a little odd, but then we did fall afterwards:
And here, where we’re at now, we’ve had an initial rally, and there is some contraction in price as well:
Up at the high, it wasn’t totally clear that even had a 1-2 to the downside for sure until we got the dump. And here, it’s also not clear whether we have a 1-2 in the other direction, and that may not become clear until or unless we also get a pump. A difference of course is that that structure up at the high took place off of the highs, and boy, we’re smashed way down here at the lows. And so this looks much worse.
At any rate, lets’ see what happens.
My subscribership for my website has stagnated for a few months now. I’m a terrible marketer, and I hate self-promotion. It’s crude and tends in the opposite direction of my humility. But, I do think I want to promote my work a little bit, because I do put a lot of time and effort into the material, and I haven’t been able to grow the site enough yet to make it compensate my time very well (though I am willing to be patient, and I know a difficult market like this can tend to drive people away from the markets).
What I think I would like to do is add some testimonials to my website, so that people can see what others have to say about my work. But I would like them to be completely genuine. And so, if any of you would like to submit a short testimonial, maybe a sentence or two, I think I would like to add that as a touch to the site.
If you do submit one, please let me know what you would it to say after the testimonial (i.e., your name, initials or whatnot) as some kind of identification. You can send one to me via e-mail, if you would like to, and I thank you in advance.
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