I will use the futures chart for this, as we lack overnight structure on cash to show a potential 3-wave move (for what I’m labelling as Green B in the chart below). We have important economic data coming out today and tomorrow, and we have the Fed today. These things can be big market movers, and it’s difficult to know with any kind of certainty which way they will play out in advance.
Given sentiment here, and other factors such as a plausible wave balance where we’re now at, my bias is for this to move up. But if we don’t get that expected move (here and here), and if we fall sharply instead, then this is what I will think is happening:
I think we will be moving lower in—hopefully—a final leg taking us to the pre-COVID highs around 3400. I have hedged for this possibility as a precaution (noted yesterday) just because these next few days can be so damned unpredictable.
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