No Real Changes to $SPX Analysis

Well yesterday I had a reasonable to count the decline as complete. And knowing that we had both PPI and FOMC minutes today, it seemed plausible that if we did have a low in place, we could begun a new bullish cycle. I prefer this thought because of the consensus that we’re headed lower, and I do try to be contrarian when I can get away with that. That does not always work.

If we do have a low in place, we certainly aren’t moving up with any kind of vigor. It’s possible that today was a small 1-2, with a leading diagonal, but it looks a bit forced:


There is some contraction in price, and we have held the lows. If this is correct, the CPI print should prompt a rally. I don’t have a strong preference for this now because it’s not the best way to start a new advance. The CPI print can produce moves that are unpredictable.

At any rate, the bearish view seems just as valid, and it could be something like this:


This isn’t without fault, either, as the move coming off of orange 4 (green arrow) is a 3-wave move, which is odd.

So, I’m not perfectly clear on the structure, and I remain long/short for the time being.

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