I’ve already noted that a big drop targets the 3400 area (here). The reason for that is the great fib down there that lines up with the Pre-COVID high.
There is another fib between here and there, and it lines up with a different moving average. Both the 200-week SMA (orange) and the 250-week EMA (green) are relevant, as the market often reacts to each of them over time. We’re wrestling the SMA now, but the EMA is still below us (green in the chart below). And there is one more fib there, too. And if we do get a big whipsaw, I can’t rule out a count like this:
It’s 70 points lower, but we got a 90-point whipsaw at the last meeting, so, despite it being big, it’s possible. A plunge there with a very severe reversal could be a candidate for a low (if we don’t already have one in now). Just exploring possibilities with you as I can’t say what will happen with certainty in advance.
Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, patrons of any denomination (you get to pick the amount) will be able to read my weekend analyses, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to all of the articles I write, and Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on other instruments and my Discord chatroom.