One More Alt for Bears and Bulls

I’ve already noted that a big drop targets the 3400 area (here). The reason for that is the great fib down there that lines up with the Pre-COVID high.

There is another fib between here and there, and it lines up with a different moving average. Both the 200-week SMA (orange) and the 250-week EMA (green) are relevant, as the market often reacts to each of them over time. We’re wrestling the SMA now, but the EMA is still below us (green in the chart below). And there is one more fib there, too. And if we do get a big whipsaw, I can’t rule out a count like this:

SPX

It’s 70 points lower, but we got a 90-point whipsaw at the last meeting, so, despite it being big, it’s possible. A plunge there with a very severe reversal could be a candidate for a low (if we don’t already have one in now). Just exploring possibilities with you as I can’t say what will happen with certainty in advance.


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