Here Are Some Thoughts

I don’t like carrying 50,320 counts and then saying after the fact, “See guys, I told you.” And I’ve shown you a lot of counts recently because there are many available to us here. And I want to be able to draw from them as the structure unfolds without throwing something entirely novel at you.

Taking what I can see so far into account (oil, Apple, sentiment, etc.), I am going to pick one. Not too bearish, not too bullish. Not too bullish because we still haven’t hit a very good fib that would help to tell me the final low is in (good candidates are 3400, close to 3200, and even this alternative from this morning). No close fib strike yet, and I can’t defend the view that the final low is in.

But, on the other hand, a rally like that should stick for while. So, bearing in mind that there is a very bearish possibility (the “orange 1-2” discussed here), I will be looking for the count below. (I will only hedge for the super dark scenario.)

I introduced this count to you here. In that post, I hypothesized that we could be entering primary (pink) “Y” of a large “Double Three” correction, and I thought pink Y would itself unfold as a W-X-Y (in orange—in the prior post). I am going to modify that here because of today’s new low. We have this nice channel (in red) and we’ve made three distinct lows and two distinct highs in this decline, so I want to count it as a impulse wave, even though it’s ugly. But “W’s” cannot be impulse waves, they must be 3-wave moves. Now “Pink Y” must also be a 3-wave move, but that doesn’t need to be a W-X-Y; it can also simply be an A-B-C, and that’s what I’m going to try to develop from here as we go along. Because an “A” of an A-B-C can be an impulse wave. Alright? I may have to change this, but I’m going to see how it goes from here.

It looks like this (with Pink Y off the bottom right):

SPX

On this count, we should be entering orange “B.” That itself must be a 3-wave move, and I think we’re in Green A of it. It’s possible that it could be done today, but it also may be that today was just “a of A” like this:

SPX

I like this for a couple of reasons. The market has been an unending nightmare for people for months. Like you see that Green 3 in the chart above? The hell kind of a 3 is that? A 3 should be a straight line. I think we have to count it as a 3, because of where it’s at, but most of the time it was all consolidation. Frustrating for bears and bulls. So, it drives a lot of people away from the markets in frustration—all this price action all year long. And days like today draw them right back real quick. And what they want to do is buy the first retracement, hoping to finally get a better rally. And a count like this will piss them off. So if we get a little retracement for blue b (it can also be deeper than that) soon, then we break this red channel and everyone sits up in their chairs. Only for us enter a “B-Wave,” a grindy bullshit thing (and it can go very deep, even retesting these lows). And maybe we stay in there for a week, week-and-a-half even. Then it looks like it’s going to roll over, everyone gives up again, and then we pump 500 points.

So, it’s a good thought. Let’s see what develops, but this is my favorite for now.

And note that price action like that can produce an excellent accumulation range, like this:

SPX


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