Here is the Risk to the Bulls

This is exactly the kind of big intraday reversal one would want to see at a major low. So it has that going for it, no doubt about it.

However, before major declines, they will also often squeeze the bejeezus out of people just before it, too.

I can’t rule out bearish stuff until we at least break the trend of lower highs by taking out the high at the green arrow. That’s a minimum requirement. If we’re in a new bullish impulse wave (the blue 1-2) at some point (doesn’t have to be now) we should get some kind of retracement that ideally will stay above the orange box.

However, this presupposes that pink 5 is done. But we can’t know that it is until we see higher prices. It’s possible that that nice fib I had the other day (red arrow) was a structure complete, a “1” of pink 5. In which case, this structure since can be an expanded flat for orange 2 (of pink 5). Can’t rule it out. If this is the case, we could enter a third wave down and it would be awful. So, I’ve taken most calls off here, will leave some runners, and averaged down the puts I rolled this morning. Trying to remain covered for both outcomes for the time being.

SPX


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