Now I complained the other day that I was not able to count the entire decline as complete, because I lacked a fib relationship I could use to justify that.
However, I have now found one, and so that is no longer true. And if we rally more strongly than I expect, I may drop the put side of my strangle and adopt this count.
On this count, we still endured a “Double Three” correction (Pink W-X-Y), with Pink Y = 1.618 times the length of Pink W:
And within Pink Y, Orange C = Orange A, like this:
And so, it actually is possible for the low to be in. Nice internal and external wave balance. If the market gets more bullish than I expect, I may adopt this count. We have plenty of things we would need: sentiment at multi-decade lows (this will become a contrarian signal at some point—that may be now), plenty of volume, a good intraday reversal, etc. We do lack a VIX spike, but, despite many folks’ insistence that we must have one, that is not necessarily true. It would be nice, of course, but plenty of major lows have been made without one.
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