An $SPX Possibility

I have been looking at the decline from the August high as an impulse wave complete. However, since wave fours can be long and complex, it’s possible that we’ve still been in one this whole time. This helps here because the price action is a bit of a mess right now. And fours are often messy.

There is wave balance between the legs of Green 4 (the blue a-b-c), if I count it this way:


We have that Pre-COVID high below us, and there is some wave balance down there as well (where Green 5 would equal Green 1). Now, if this rally does fail here, that all makes a good target down there. And when we get there, that should either be Orange A of a large A-B-C of “Pink Y” (you can review that here) if we’re not doomed, or it’s intermediate (orange) 1 of a very bearish pattern. In either case, we should rally from there, and it would just be a matter of how high (orange box for a 2 if we have a crash coming, higher for an orange B if we don’t have a crash—but we will worry about that later).

A “long drawn out 4th wave” is an idea I last discussed here.

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