I am particularly interested for the time being in the thought from yesterday (here). I am basing this in part on the plausibility of the count (which seems high to me right now), and on my assessment of sentiment and other instruments that I watch. Being this bullish in the short term is a warning, to my mind, a thought I discussed here. For us to have a much longer rally, I would rather have seen far more fear and worry, and some kind of better accumulation. Right now I am seeing perhaps the exact opposite.
None of this is to say this is the right interpretation, but it’s the one I favor the most right now. If we are coming to the end of a wave 4 here, we may see something choppy for the beginning of Green 5. In other words, Blue 1 of Green 5 might be something like a leading diagonal, something choppy and time consuming to get us closer to the FOMC announcement. If so, it could look like this:
The only other thing I can see that could prompt a more rapid reversal would be a news event (or an earnings miss), so we can’t rule out a sharp reversal. But, if we don’t get that, then I will expect something a bit more like this.
I have to leave for a couple of hours to collect my wife from the airport, and so I wanted to get this thought out before I left.
All of that said, we’ve had a strong reaction to the 200-week SMA, and of course it’s possible that a far more major low is in. But, at least for now, I cannot easily interpret this structure as any kind of impulse wave here. And it’s not as weak as I had hoped to see for my much bigger Green A-B-C of Orange B that I had been open to before (here).
So, let’s see what happens. I will hold my puts with duration, and I will be trying to get a short in on the futures somewhere up here.
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