A Quick Look at $RBLX

Someone had asked me about $RBLX, and I forgot about it. I have discussed it before, and I have a thought on it now, so I will point out a few things.

I have attempted to count the structure before (here, here) but it’s a difficult mess. Until something larger “finishes,” I don’t have a great way to count it, but, I do think I see a very large structure.

Now, my worries at present regarding the U.S. indices are that we’re enduring merely a bear market rally, and that we will go on to make new lows again. I would absolutely love to enjoy a long, bullish run, but without a damn Fed pivot, I’m not seeing it, and the best we might get is a pause, and even that, maybe not for a while. And to compound matters, I wanted to see an accumulation, but we’ve gone straight up, which makes me suspicious that smart money never absorbed the supply. So, I’m bearish on the indices until I see something better.

And, in line with that, $RBLX may have formed a gigantic bearish wedge:


One target for that is the orange line, but it easily could go to a much lower fib, too. But, getting cut in half is a good enough first target, so I’ll leave that for now.

And, I suppose, this all still makes sense. Stocks like this do well in environments with peak liquidity, where speculation can run freely (it’s a growth stock, newly established), and if we’re entering the opposite regime for a while, I wouldn’t expect this stock to do well. So, if it stays below the upper green trend line, I would expect this structure to fail.

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