A Quick Look at $RBLX

Someone had asked me about $RBLX, and I forgot about it. I have discussed it before, and I have a thought on it now, so I will point out a few things.

I have attempted to count the structure before (here, here) but it’s a difficult mess. Until something larger “finishes,” I don’t have a great way to count it, but, I do think I see a very large structure.

Now, my worries at present regarding the U.S. indices are that we’re enduring merely a bear market rally, and that we will go on to make new lows again. I would absolutely love to enjoy a long, bullish run, but without a damn Fed pivot, I’m not seeing it, and the best we might get is a pause, and even that, maybe not for a while. And to compound matters, IĀ wanted to see an accumulation, but we’ve gone straight up, which makes me suspicious that smart money never absorbed the supply. So, I’m bearish on the indices until I see something better.

And, in line with that, $RBLX may have formed a gigantic bearish wedge:


One target for that is the orange line, but it easily could go to a much lower fib, too. But, getting cut in half is a good enough first target, so I’ll leave that for now.

And, I suppose, this all still makes sense. Stocks like this do well in environments with peak liquidity, where speculation can run freely (it’s a growth stock, newly established), and if we’re entering the opposite regime for a while, I wouldn’t expect this stock to do well. So, if it stays below the upper green trend line, I would expect this structure to fail.

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