$SPX Update

Let’s revisit some of the ongoing thoughts.

Of the two best ways to count the advance (Red A-B-C vs. Green A-B-C) for what I think is an Orange wave “2,” we came really close to 3918 in cash, which is where Green C equals Green A. It’s probably close enough to count. IF we do have a top in (this is a good rejection so far), bears will like to see the parallel rails (green lines) break. In doing so, that should be some kind of “1,” and I would have to suppose that any kind of rally into FOMC would be a “2” (in the blue degree).


The one glaring problem with all of this is the sheer obviousness of it. That makes me a little nervous, so we’ll have to see what happens. But, if the 3918 area holds as resistance, rallies should be sellable. Above 3918 and I would have to think higher prices are still possible.

As noted in the chat, I bought back my sold puts this morning (which I had sold against my long puts yesterday—to protect them), and I have a futures short on now, with a stop above 3940 (on /ES, which roughly corresponds to 3918 on cash $SPX).

Alright, let’s see what happens. This whole thing surrounding FOMC can still get very volatile, so try to be careful!

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