$SPX Update

While we didn’t get a “shoulder” as I was anticipating earlier (here), we may have simply formed an ending diagonal for Green C:


Ultimately they amount to the same thing, as they are both topping patterns. But with an ending diagonal, the “third drive up” makes a new high instead of a lower high.

So, if we’ve topped, we may have completed blue 1 and 2 today, and we can be in the 3rd blue wave down.

If we have a bad reaction to the PPI, then I would hope to see us get toward the lower end of the big bearish wedge.

It’s not a deal breaker, but the only thing I don’t like here is the wall into the close. Sometimes those can be reversed the next day. But not always. We just had a couple of very strong closes to the upside that did not reverse the next day. And some major selloffs (like the vertical drop on June 9th) did see followthrough. So, we will have to see. But I like that we’re now back inside the bear wedge. Now we just need to see if we can get some followthrough. If we do, it could be a long way down.

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