$SPX Update: Bear Porn Edition

I am going to run through a quick argument tonight. I will try to be brief, and to the point, and we’ll see what happens over the coming days.

This remains possible:

We have good internal balance (1:1), and if we drop to 3883 and rally from there, this will look, and count, just like a flat correction.

But, there are some things that make me very nervous here. To begin with, it’s not great that they ran it up this high without stopping out overeager longs by moving us lower, and then higher. By going straight up, what they’ve actually done is the opposite: they just flushed the shorts. That is to say, they want people to be long here, which is why they never flushed the longs out.

Now, this structure is certainly corrective:

It is an advance, followed by a contraction in price, followed by an advance. It is not an impulse wave. We won’t see contraction like that in the middle of an impulse wave. We can see something like that up towards the top of an impulse wave (in a 4th wave), but not like this.

Now, if it’s a 3-wave move, as in my “flat” idea, it’s getting too big for a “b” of minuette (orange) degree. And that is odd. I feel like this should be of minute (blue) degree, because of its size, and if it is, it might even be this:

Ideally, what we should get is blue c going above blue a, and we did if blue a was on the 11th over there on the top left.

And we should also see some other fibs as well.

And we do. A lot of them.

If we stop and reverse here, Green C = 61.8% the length of Green A:

And, Blue C = 38.2% the length of Blue A:

And hell, let’s go all the way.

Backing out even more, Orange C = Orange A (of Pink B) on the nose at today’s high:

So, from all angels, we have wave balance. That makes this is a very good candidate for the “technical” top of the rally (even though we had slightly higher prices the other day). From a counting perspective, this could very well be it. But, we’ll need to see a reversal.

Now, things like Bitcoin, what did I need?

I am almost certain that it’s in its 5th primary (pink) wave, and that should become a large, 5-wave decline of it’s own (in orange, 5 orange waves down). And the FTX blowup was “1” in orange, and we should be in “2.” We rallied (Green A), fell (Green B), and I need another rally for Green C of Orange 2:

But we’ve had a rally today, and it doesn’t have to be huge, it just needs to be there, and it is now there. And so there’s not a lot stopping us from doing this:

And in fact, all year, Bitcoin’s declines have slopped over the edge in this way. No real countertrend bounces, just falling over the edges (green arrows):

So we have everything we need for a resumption of the down trend. I don’t know that we’ll get it, but if we do, I can defend it, technically. And I can defend it very well here.

I think they should have shoved the longs out before running us this high, if this was sustainable, and they did the exact opposite. I was willing to try to participate in further upside if they had done that, but they haven’t, and I take that as a potentially very bearish signal. They want everyone long here, they want no one short (or as few as possible), and I think that’s bearish.

So, let’s see what happens. If we get a sharp reversal I will probably begin counting the structure as “the high is in.”