A Few Fibs I Can See Here, and Some Other Things

I will just note a few things.

We had excellent fibs the other day (here). That inclined me to think we could have been at the top of the rally, but we’ve gone a little higher. And yet, looking here, too, the fibs are not terrible.

On the largest scale, Orange C = 78.6% the length of Orange A:

Now, this differs from the other count in that for this, I have to use the June low for Pink A instead of the May low. And that actually gives us a lower target (since A is now deeper, so then should be C). And so this targets 2852 (whereas the other one targeted 3000 almost on the nose).

So, if we get a big reversal, that will be my target. But we gotta reverse.

Zooming in, and adjusting the low where we placed Green B (to a prior low), Green C = 78.6% the length of Green A:

And, Blue c = 38.2% the length of Blue a:

And finally, within Blue c, little orange c = 1.272 times the length of little orange a:

This last one looks a little sketchy. But that’s the only relationship I can find within Blue c (if you see a better one, let me know).

But, in the end, if they rug us here (they might not), I can at least explain it, and I can produce a target from here. So, we will have to see.

Otherwise, we’re just going to have to go get that 200-day that basically everyone expects. Or do they? Boy, the put-to-call ratio is nuts. Shot way up over 2:1 today before falling again. So, sentiment seems mixed. Plenty of bulls and bears.

I will note a few other things.

---

The dollar, on my count, needed another drop to finish 5 blue waves for Green C. And typically, the 5th wave will make a new low. But it doesn’t always. Things can truncate. And, we have had a drop, and so it’s possible that even though blue 5 has not taken out the low of blue 3, that it’s done here:

It’s also possible the blue 3 is actually at the low to its left, in which case blue 5 has taken out blue 3 (if you want to actually see that, click this picture).

---

The VIX is getting completely destroyed day in day out as if the yield curves are not shouting a deep recession is coming. It’s amazing. We are inverted more now than we were even in the worst of it leading to the GFC. It’s the hardest inversion I can find. But, the VIX likes it I guess. It’s fallen below the giant wedge trend line. And it’s farther outside (below) its Bollinger Band than it has been in years. I can’t find another instance where it’s this far below its band. So, maybe it reverses here? Or is the wedge breakdown telling us it has a lot lower to go now?

I will note that VVIX (as opposed to VIX) was quite strong today. That should be institutional hedging in the VIX taking place.

---

And finally, Bitcoin has no changes. It is very negatively configured. If this is the top of its Orange 2, it can get cut in half or worse from here:

A third wave is a monster, and I can’t see how all markets could remain unaffected by that loss of liquidity. In this drop (if it does drop), MSTR will get margin called, because their creditors will force them to sell at 13-something thousand. And they’re not the only ones that will blow up.

---

So, all of these taken together, I dunno. I feel like there is risk. But the market is acting very risk on, and it’s a seasonally bullish period. So, who the hell knows when or if sellers will show up. But if everyone is expecting a top very soon, and if everyone keeps piling into 1DTE OTM puts, we might keep squeezing until everyone runs out of money.

Let’s see what happens, enjoy your Turkey (for those in the U.S.), and see you guys soon.