A Brief Weekend Review

Now, no real changes. If we get a drop (and it’s not very big), this is still possible. But, since we closed little changed, all of these fibs are still on the table, too. Meaning, this can also be the top.

If it is, we can put the head of the head and shoulders in now like this:

SPX

Now, in this chart, I have gone ahead and counted Green C as a 5-wave structure in blue, which I’ve been reluctant to do, because I don’t easily see good fib relationships to say it’s an impulse wave, and the blue 1 doesn’t look quite right by itself, either, but, as a whole, it sort of “looks” like a 5-wave structure. And that triangle-like structure we had just below us the other day looks like the sort of thing you would normally see in a “4th” wave, so I’ll label it this way for now.

So, if we get a big selloff right from here, we should be forming the right side of the “head.” And that Green 2 (of orange 1) in there would line up with Powell’s next speech somewhere.

Another reason I like this as the top is today’s price action.

If we zoom in to today’s price action, I sort of like these consolidations. They can be ending diagonal triangles, and most people (the vast majority) don’t see them that way. Several prominent Elliotticians discuss them in their books (including Neely, etc.), but I think few have actually read them. I think most people who practice the art have picked up their tools mostly from the Internet. And I have never seen these discussed on the Internets or the Youtubes. But they’re absolutely real and they do happen.

There are two kinds of “ending diagonals,” the “traditional” ones everyone points out (i’ve illustrated one in red), and these “triangles” (illustrated in green), and that’s what today could have been:

SPX

But, if it’s an ending diagonal, it’s not what I would expect in the middle swing of a larger triangle like I discussed earlier (here). And so, if it’s an ending diagonal, and if we get a big drop next week, it should be the top and not a swing high. And maybe futures on Sunday night squeeze up a little and clear the poor high we made. That would be terrific.

So, let’s see what happens. I like this as a top. Let’s see if we finally start moving lower. We have everything we need if we get it, so I won’t have lingering doubts if we turn down sharply. And given the look on Bitcoin here, it would make a lot more sense for everything to fall together.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I have a date with some pumpkin pie lol


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