$SPX Update

Yesterday I mistakenly thought that blue 1 was already in, and that we would rally today in blue 2. What I expect here is a structure that will give this topping process some symmetry, and that could mean that we are producing a leading diagonal for minor (green) 1. (Symmetry is common, but not a guarantee.)

Since we made a new low today, I will put blue 1 in today instead of at yesterday’s low, and drag the wedge a little lower. What we should see (I hope) is still some rally for minute (blue) 2; that should be a 3-wave structure (the orange a-b-c) leading to blue 2:


Yesterday I closed a third of my long puts, but only a third in case I was wrong about my expectations, which came in handy today because I was wrong about them in the short term. So, today, I closed another third of them on the dump, and I want to watch to see if this structure continues to develop as a diagonal from here.

It is still possible that blue 1 is not yet in even now, and I could also be wrong about the structure entirely, which is why I will leave some puts on. But, let’s see how this develops over the next couple of days. I still think something along these lines are fairly high probability.

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