$SPX Update

I don’t see any good reason to change my views here. I think the structure I’ve been discussing (e.g., here) remains a good option. It will give the topping process a good “look.”

Now, within that, we should be in Blue 2. We have probably completed orange a and orange b and are waiting on the c:


I don’t know how high the red trend line should go. I’ve stuck it there at a place that makes it about the same size as the wedge we formed from the 17th-22nd (what I believe is its sister structure). But it can go a little higher, a little lower. Will have to see. But, if we rally, we may consolidate up there for a good part of the day, then fall late in the day, or even the next day (something I have seen them do before). So if people have a lot of short-term puts right now, a rally and pause up there can cause maximum anxiety.

An alternative is that we’re still in orange b, as they are welcome to do anything they’d like to (b waves are the wild, unpredictable goth chicks of technical analysis). On occasion, they can even retest the originating trend line, like this:


I don’t think that’s too likely, but it’s possible.

I will continue to hold my partial put position and see how things go. If we do get a rally up there, I will take some puts back, if we get the weirder variant, I will close the rest of the puts while we’re down there and watch. And of course, I will provide what intraday updates I can in the chat.

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