A Thought on $SPX

Discord members have already seen this, but I will post the same thought for article-readers here as well. It is good and bearish that we’ve lost that major support that is the trend line that has governed our advance from the October low. Now, for the VERY bearish case, I would have expected a big gap down. And since we’ve lost the trend line but without a gap (discussed here) there is some increased risk that we may return to it.

In life there are no guarantees, and it IS bearish that we’re under support. But, in case we do travel back to the trend line, here is what might happen:

SPX

There are other variations of this that can also work.

This idea resembles the thought discussed in the 4th chart from last night. The selling pressure is pretty heavy today, so I can’t guarantee a bounce here, but I just want to lay it out as a possibility because we didn’t break support in the best way possible (a gap under). And just like our not gapping over the 200-day led me to not trust it up there (discussed here), I am a bit less inclined to immediately trust this drop for the same reason.

Anything is possible, and things feel good and bearish, so I’m not sure what probability to place on this.


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