2 thoughts on “Market Update for Monday, April 17th, 2023”
One potential catalyst I heard today …
The regional banks are low on capital, as shown by the large tapping of the Fed discount window. More deposits leaving could be a problem.
There are strong seasonal deposit flows around tax season. Deposits build up into the deadline (Apr 18) then disappear to pay taxes, including Q1 estimated taxes for businesses.
So deposits will drain considerably in coming months. Sell in May and go away?
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One potential catalyst I heard today …
The regional banks are low on capital, as shown by the large tapping of the Fed discount window. More deposits leaving could be a problem.
There are strong seasonal deposit flows around tax season. Deposits build up into the deadline (Apr 18) then disappear to pay taxes, including Q1 estimated taxes for businesses.
So deposits will drain considerably in coming months. Sell in May and go away?
Very interesting. Notice last April how the decline accelerated on the 21st or so. Very plausible regarding the deposit flows around tax season.