Market Update for Tuesday, May 9th, 2023

I only have a few comments to make today.

We remain firmly entrenched in the range.


It doesn’t take a degree from higher education to see that much. There are only a few ways this can play out:

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So that’s the plan. I’m still hoping the first plays out, but the others are always possible, and I’ll grin and bear it if those happen.

I would like to take a quick look at the Russell. I’ve been looking at it often with you lately because it’s important here partly because it’s the weakest and so exposed to the sector that’s in the most trouble—the regional banks. Little Russ can drag everything down with it. Also bull markets often involve a lot of strength in the Russell in the early stages, and its chronic weakness may cast doubt on the new bull market hypothesis altogether. That changes if this goes shooting up, but it’s vulnerable here.

This weekend I discussed the bullish wedge:


We’re still above the upper rail, but we’ve now tested that upper rail twice. Twice is more than enough. Once is often enough. So if this is bullish, it should go now. I’ve already discussed some reasons why I’m skeptical of this— both this weekend and yesterday—but if I’m wrong to be skeptical of the bull wedge, it should tell us very soon.

I have two more quick points to make. One is regarding a historical crash signal and where we stand with that, and the second is a few site modifications.

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Ok, that’s what I’ve got for tonight. Let’s see if the CPI can break us free and bring us some volume and a direction. If this is distribution, it’s going to a bear party soon.

And as always, what’s most important to me: I hope everyone has a wonderful evening.

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