I last discussed the $10YRYLD in this post. Again, I’m not certain what will happen here, but I sort of expect a reaction, and probably a pullback in rates, and probably a pullback in equities with it. But, just because it’s interesting, the trend line I’ve been pointing out for some time (back here for instance) is exactly where we came to today:
I have no crystal ball, so I’m just accumulating evidence and trying to assess. This morning I pointed out my bullish expectations and the bearish alternative, but I would like add a point to that discussion. Something that shows up a little bit clearer on cash $SPY than it does on $ES is a little triangle below us. And note its position in relation to the prior one (these are the minute [blue] b waves), how similar they are to each other.
That’s a bad place for a triangle if you’re trying to be bullish (one wants to see triangles high, not low). It may mean that this move up, like the last move up is counter-trend, a 3-wave move.
This dampens my bullishness to some degree.
Just making an observation here: $ES is approaching the upper bound of its bullish wedge. It may have a reaction here of some kind. I’m not suggesting one stand in front of the freight train, as $SPY sliced through its different trend line like it wasn’t even there, and this is welcome do so as well. However, if it needs to take a sip of air, this is a good place for it to try to do so.