I Am Going to Slightly Shift the Focus of This Website

First of all, I would like to deeply thank all of you for having joined my website. I very much enjoy creating the work that I do, and I am grateful that you find it of some use to you in your own navigation of the markets. I really do enjoy the time I spend creating the work. I find it stimulating and rewarding.

When I created the website, in addition to the work you see me produce most often, I envisioned a library of charts for many people to make use of for sometimes longer-duration trades, but as I’ve worked through the new website’s growing pains over the last few months, I’ve come to realize that much of that work will go wasted. I am personally unable to take trades on every underlying for which I make a call, and I created that library expecting a bit of a larger audience who might make use of such a body of work. In other words, when I created the site, my thought was, in order to get things going, “More content is better than less.”

But, in the end, the audience is small, and I don’t really mind that; in fact, I kind of enjoy it.

As it stands, there are more tickers on this website than there are users, and it makes less sense for me to focus on updating calls for individual names that will mostly remain as a curiosity for people’s browsing. That said, much of that work did not go entirely to waste, as a vast majority of the calls I’ve made on individual names have hit the targets I expected them to. And so, it’s a bit of a portfolio for me now, a body of work serving as evidence that the technical analysis I conduct is reasonable and very often predictive. And that is good to be able to demonstrate to people.

The shift in focus will be in the following way: many of the calls on individual names will be relegated to the status of a side hobby. If I see a setup that I think is particularly promising, I will point it out when I am able to, but my main focus throughout each week will be:

  1. Regular technical analysis updates on the S&P 500, including frequently updated Elliott Wave counts
  2. Broad market analyses where I assemble market information which I believe gives insight into market direction
  3. Somewhat frequent technical analysis of the other major U.S. indices
  4. Chart requests from members will remain a priority

I write this post in order to be explicit about the shift I intend so that you can decide whether remaining as a member is suitable under these conditions. Regardless of your decision, I offer my kindest thanks and deepest gratitude for having joined while I’ve worked my way through figuring out exactly what it is I want to do here.

A Couple of Explanatory Notes Added to the About Page

I have added some explanatory remarks to the “About” page because what’s clear in my mind about the procedure I use for classifying my charts may not be clear to everyone else’s minds, so I thought it might be helpful to be direct and as clear as possible. So, I’ve elaborated on how I work through my charts. And instead of directing you to reread the entire About section, I will post the added paragraphs here below so that you can read just the added components.

The specific procedure I use for “categorizing”:

I want to explain to you the procedure I use when dealing with the calls I make so that when you locate a chart for a given underlying, you can better understand its status. I cover many instruments and it’s impossible for me to update each chart with a new post after every squiggle in the market. Most of the calls I make on individual names are pointing to something weeks or months away. My shorter-term calls are frequently confined to the US indices (but not always). I post updates to the indices (especially the S&P 500) almost daily.

When I make a prediction and generate a post, I first categorize it under “Active.” Now, I monitor all of the names for which I have an “Active” post on a daily basis. Each day, I walk down a watchlist that has all of the tickers with “Active” calls on them and I assess whether I think the call I made is still reasonable. So long as I feel that it is, then I do nothing. I leave the post as is, and you can assume that if you see a chart from three weeks ago, if it’s still categorized as “Active,” then I still believe that the call I made is reasonable, even if we haven’t yet rushed straight to the expected level. I feel that it doesn’t make a lot of sense for me to reiterate a given call that I’ve made, because it will populate the site with a lot of redundant content.

Now, over time, one of three things will happen:

  1. If we get to (or very close to) my target, I will update that post, add a screenshot showing the target being reached (or very nearly reached), and I will celebrate a victory by recategorizing the post from “Active” to “Successful Calls.” Most of the time, that’s it. I’m not making another call at that point. Typically, I need to then monitor the price action before I can determine a new target.
  2. If we deviate too far from my expectations, I will update that post, add a screenshot showing the target failing to be reached, and I will suffer my humiliation by recategorizing it from “Active” to “Unsuccessful Calls.”
  3. If I lose faith in a call I’ve made, but the price has not wildly veered off course (yet), then I will recategorize the original post under “Cancelled Calls.”

Now, when one of these events transpires, I can’t always announce each and every re-categorization, because it will inundate everyone with too much information. It’s generally my expectation that someone who is interested in a call that I’ve made will mark their own charts with targets I’ve provided and will be able to assess whether things are going according to plan without my having to update a particular chart every day. If you’re following a particular call closely yourself, it may be advised to check in on a given post throughout the week to see if it remains categorized as “Active” or not. If it’s not any longer, I will have updated the post with some kind of explanation.

In each of the these three cases, I will make the post available to the public. In the event that I do feel like a new call is warranted when one of the three things above happens, then I will generate an entirely new post and categorize that new post as “Active.”

I have just added a asterisk feature today:

I have also added “asterisks” to the right of each ticker for which I have an active call. In other words, if the ticker is present on the left, it means that I have, at some point, made a chart for that ticker. But, I may not have a present call for each and every ticker. When that happens, it’s because one of the three things listed in the section above has transpired, and I am in the process of monitoring the price action to see if something new develops that will give me confidence in making a new call.

Update on Website Search Functionality

Previously noted in this post, searching for tickers on the site was not ideal because password-protected posts were excluded from the results.

I have now been able to modify this functionality. Now all posts, regardless of whether they are protected or not, will show up in the results.

And just one quick note on the search feature: I deliberately precede all tickers throughout this website when I employ them with a dollar sign ($). Using that in the search field will help to eliminate unexpectedly wide results in some instances (for example, using “EEM” will return all posts in which I also use the word “seem,” etc., whereas using “$EEM” will limit those results to posts in which I am discussing the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF).

Tags for US Indices Are Now Consolidated

I’ve made an adjustment to how I tag posts that discuss the US indices. Previously, if I was dealing with a chart on $SPY, I would simply give it that tag. Same with $ES, etc. It was more or less chart specific. But, of course, that introduced a strange problem: if someone were looking for information on the S&P 500, regardless of the underlying instrument they were seeking information for in particular, clicking on one of those tags (in a post) or in the ticker list (in the sidebar), would end up giving them only a partial set of posts that ultimately all dealt with the same index. In order to get all the information available about that index, they would ultimately have to click through all links to $SPY, then $ES, then $SPX. And that is sort of absurd.

So, I’ve consolidated the way I tag them all. The links in the sidebar are now conglomerates, so they now are: “$SPY-$ES-$SPX,” “$QQQ-$NQ-$NDX,” “$IWM-$RTY-$RUT,” “$DIA-$YM-$DJIA,” and clicking on any of those conglomerates returns all posts on those respective indices. And clicking on any component (e.g., “$SPY“) within a post has the same effect.

This is something that’s bugged me for a little while now, and I hope this new method makes locating information easier.

A Note on Website Search Functionality

As it turns out (I had to do some digging to be certain), it is a default feature of WordPress to exclude password-protected posts from the search results. Thus, if you search for a ticker using the search tool at the top, you will not see, in the results, posts that are “active” and “protected.”

I believe there is a way to modify this feature, and I am in the process of comprehending the necessary code adjustments that may be necessary.

In the meantime, using the ticker list on the left sidebar will deliver to you a list of all posts for a given ticker, including password-protected ones.

I will let you know when I have this resolved.

Goodbye Tag Cloud, Hello Custom Ticker List

I was facing a bit of a looming problem. I like the idea of a Tag Cloud, but there was one serious threat: while one may create as many tags as one wishes, the Tag Cloud limits the number made visible to 100. And I cover more instruments than that. Eventually, not all of the instruments I cover would be accessible on the sidebar and they would have to be searched for manually.

Well where there’s a will, there’s a way and I instead opted for a manual custom option that groups the tickers into several categories (stocks, indices, metals, etc.). Doing this provides me with a limitless option, and by grouping them as I have, I hope finding charts on the site becomes even easier.

When I introduce a new ticker that I have not yet made a post for, I have only to copy and paste a big block of code that is automatically generated from my list of instruments (locally, on my computer) and it will add it into the sidebar. So, fairly straightforward, and as time progresses, I will have to do that less and less often as I continue to populate the site with content.

Perhaps at some point I will have to divide the Stocks & ETFs section into several subgroups (“A-F,” “G-M,” etc.), but that will be very straightforward once the time comes.

What to Expect During the First Couple of Weeks on This Site

Now that I have completed the basic look, feel and functionality of the new website, it’s high time to fill it with some content.

As many of you know, for all of Twitter’s benefits, locating past content is not among them. I often post charts with predictions that have some duration, perhaps in terms of weeks or months, and that work gets almost immediately buried. To find such work, one either has to do an obnoxious amount of scrolling or specialized searching using the not immediately intuitive advanced search feature Twitter makes available.

By moving content here, I can enable people to find the work far more easily. And, I have the added benefit of being able to discuss the trades with a little more elaboration than I can on Twitter due to their character limit.

So, what I’ll do over the next few days is post many of the trade ideas that I have for a variety of stocks, and you should see those beginning to populate the site soon.

Lastly, I hope I have worked out most of the obvious initial technical kinks, but if you observe website behavior that you would not normally expect, please do alert me so that I can look into it.