A Minor Site Update (New Tiers Added, Some Content Shifted)

This will affect very few of you, so many of you may disregard this.

I needed to add some more expensive tiers in order to bring what I offer closer to that of my peers. However, I did not want to raise prices for existing members. So, most everything will remain the same: the very vast majority of you are here to read the articles I produce and to discuss things during the day in the Discord server.

And so, that will remain the same: patrons of any denomination will still be able to read the weekend articles so that they may sample my work a few times per month to see if it is to their liking. And all articles may still be read by members in “Tier 1” for $20/month. And, access to the Discord server will remain in “Tier 2” at $35/month.

The area where I will expanding my work is with my “Other Counts” of various indices and other assets for which I do not always write an entire article for. I will still write some articles on individual stocks, as I always have. But, I will be expanding the number that I keep on the separate, dedicated pages. And access to those will be made through two additional tiers, bringing my services closer in line in price with others who do similar (but of course inferior, kidding) work.

So, I just wanted to announce that. Please don’t feel at all obligated to join either of those two new tiers. I know most of you visited those pages infrequently. And I’m not trying to up sell anything here. I’m just noting that these changes are being implemented.

This also gave me an opportunity to clean a few things up and make a few things more obvious (on how join, etc.).

Many thanks, I love you guys, thanks for enjoying the work!

I Have Made A Few Website Modifications

When I first initiated access to my work (when I first produce it) using Patreon, I made some guesses at what I thought folks would like, and I set things up that way.

Since then, I have had time to review what folks actually use most on a regular basis, based on where folks visit on the site most frequently. In response to what I think folks like the most, I have simplified the tiers that I set up back then. I have reduced them to just two.

  • Tier 1 members ($20/mo, just $0.66 per day) will have access to all of the articles I write, regardless of their topic. I usually have at least something to say about the S&P 500 every day (and I discuss the kinds of trades that I am taking and why), and I often write about other assets less frequently and I produce general commentary regarding the markets throughout the month. All of these articles may be read by members of this tier.
  • Tier 2 members ($35/mo, just $1.16 per day) will have access to the articles above, plus they will be able to access the “Current S&P 500 Count” page (where I often keep an alternate count), the “Other Selected Counts” page where I keep counts (updated every week or two) for about 20 different assets (including some commodities, stocks and crypto), and they will be able to access my Discord Chat Server (which now replaces the older interface I had been using before). Note: I’m not always super active in chat, because I’m not really a day trader, but I enjoy chit chatting with folks, and if something does come up during a session, I enjoy discussing it.

I hope these changes are welcome.

A few additional notes:

  • To access the private Discord chat server (for Tier 2 members), you will need Patreon to assign your Discord account to a specific role on my chat server in order to be able to view the private channel. This is an automated process, performed by a bot of theirs. To do this, you must link Discord to your Patreon account, so that it can assign you the appropriate permissions. It’s fairly easy to do. Instructions may be found here. Once that is complete, you may visit my chat server here and, if Patreon has assigned you to the proper role, you should be able to chat.
  • I will leave the old chat platform up for a while during the transition (probably a few weeks). I will still need a few of you to migrate to Discord so that I can make sure it’s all working right. It’s a much more powerful service, so I think it will be better.
  • I have removed chart requests as a feature from the site. Few people used that, and it can sometimes take several hours for me to produce a proper chart (and discussion), and I needed that to be in a very expensive tier, and it’s not been popular, so I’ve taken that away.
  • You should visit Patreon to make sure that you are in the tier that you would like to be in (I used two of the prior tiers, so most of you should already be where you want to be, but it won’t hurt to make sure). Most of you have been effectively upgraded to additional resources, so I imagine it will be acceptable.

As always please let me know if you have any questions, and thank you for your interest in my work. I am grateful.

My Work Will Be Temporarily Interrupted

I mentioned on Twitter the other day that I lost power, and it’s actually quite a mess.

In New Orleans, the infrastructure here is old and poorly maintained. A woman driving normally down my street somehow happened to snag an old cable line that has hung loosely from a telephone pole across the street. It somehow got tangled in one of her wheels and pulling on that pulled on many other lines jumbled up with where that one originated.

Among them was the power line running to my house. It ripped one of the stems right from the house, and that’s why—as it turned out—I lost power.

The power company has come out and cut the wire entirely, and needs the owner of the property to replace that whole attachment before they will reattach.

I rent this home.

Further complicating matters is the fact that the energy company has said that all of the electric equipment on the side of the house is outdated and not up to code, and everything will need to be replaced before they will reconnect (it’s actually an old fuse box right now, and not circuit breakers).

The owner of the property is now (as I understand it) dealing with electricians and hopes to have someone out by tomorrow. So, in the best case scenario, I get power back on in a day or two. But at this point I don’t actually really know because an electrician hasn’t even yet been out (because it’s the weekend, and this is the Deep South).

Luckily, my neighbor has been kind enough to let me run a long extension cord to a plug on their property, and I am using that to keep my refrigerator on, and to charge mobile devices.

All of my work that I do is done on a desktop computer, and I can’t run all of that equipment off of this one extension cord. So, bear with me for moment until I figure out what’s what. If it’s going to take them a long time, I may need to physically move (if even temporarily) or something else that I cannot yet foresee. My ability to post articles will be limited for at least the next few days.

I apologize for this unfortunate turn of events.

I Have Found a Use for My Previously Private Twitter Feed

When I created this website, I needed a way for folks who had contributed to be able to access protected content here, and so I settled on the use of a private Twitter feed in which I could store a password for them to use.

However, as the Patreon model does all of this far more conveniently, I haven’t had a use for that feed, but I’ve thought of something that some folks might like to have.

When I publish content here, it gets blasted to both my public and once-private feeds on Twitter. But on my public feed, in addition to the market-related tweets, I also publish a lot of trash lol—anything from terrible jokes to things I find newsworthy. And so following me there in order to see when new content is published here punishes people by forcing them to sift through all of my garbage lol.

So, here’s what I’ve done: I’ve made that once-private feed a second public feed now. And the only things that get posted there are links to the articles I publish here.

And so: if any of you would like to be push notified of new content I publish here, there are now two better choices: one may use the e-mail form in the left sidebar of this website, and one may now also seek notifications on the now trading-only Twitter feed, using this Twitter feature:

Twitter Notify

In either case, should members want to be told when I’ve published new content here (without also being subjected to my crude sense of humor and whatever I find newsworthy at a given moment), this is an alternative they may use.

My Work Will Soon Be Supported Using a Patreon Tier Model

Just a quick update alerting everyone to some website changes that will be coming up.

In this post, I described to you my reluctance to heavily market my work (because I find it difficult to point to myself constantly) and I explained that I would be turning my work into a public resource for the time being, as a trial to see whether I could drum up sufficient demand for the analyses that I enjoy producing. And, after a few weeks of experimenting with that, I believe I now have sufficiently exposed my work to a wider audience, but, as feared in that article, it was very much a steep pay cut, as very few people donated to support the work. I choose to interpret that as an advertising expense well spent.

When my work was previously private, the arrangement I had decided on was not without fault, as there were folks willing to pay more, and other folks willing to pay less, and having one, single price for the work was not ideal. So, I have decided to make use of a Patreon integration, which will allow me to use their “tier” system to offer varying degrees of work to folks of varying need, a menu if you will.

So, I have divided up the work that I produce and have added a few new features, and I will let people choose their own level of interest. As you folks already know, throughout each month, I write articles of a more general character as well as some that are more technical in nature. I have also now added a chat lounge, and two places where I can more easily maintain Elliott wave counts for assets that I am presently watching (one for the S&P 500, and another for other assets). Adding those wave count sections has proven to be of great interest to the public (very heavily trafficked) and it has saved me from the trivial task of writing actual articles which say things like, “no updates of significance to the count at this time,” etc. And, as always, I will continue to accept chart requests, though I have elevated those to a high tier because it typically takes me at least an hour or two to thoroughly generate those analyses.

More specific information may be found on the About page here, and similar details (and prices) may be found on my Patreon page here.

I will be turning the Patreon integration on in a week or so, giving folks time to look around, and time to consider the various tiers I have chosen before any of it actually goes live. Be advised, as it is nearing the end of the month: Patreon charges new patrons when they first join, and then again on the first of every month so if you join a tier now, you will be charged again in just a few more days.

I hope that many of you enjoy the new arrangement and, of course, if you have any questions, please feel free to ask me.

My Work Will Be a Public Resource for the Time Being

I have deeply enjoyed creating the work that I publish on my website (I find it stimulating), and I am profoundly grateful to my members for making it possible. I spend a great deal of time conducting and communicating my analyses and without my members, I would not be able to produce the work that I do in the format that I prefer (the longer format of a website as opposed to the shorter format of just Twitter).

That said—and this part is entirely my fault—I am a terrible marketer. It’s repugnant to me. Successful marketers highlight their accomplishments and conceal their faults, and, at least in the Twitterverse, they also often aim to polish their own appearance by diminishing others’. And these are behaviors that run counter to the traits that I hold most dear. I’m just not a chest thumper by nature. And I would much rather let my work speak for itself, and quietly so, and that just doesn’t drag people in. People want to see a spectacle and it is difficult for me to produce one.

And because I am terrible at marketing the analyses that I publish here, it’s been difficult for me to gain new members over time. So I am going to try a different approach.

Instead of having a limited number of members each required to pay some amount each month (a private resource with required donations), I will now try a different tactic: I will make it a public resource with voluntary donations. The gamble that I am taking here is that I may end up taking a pay cut, but in the face of declining membership, it’s a risk I feel I must take.

So, going forward, please enjoy the work, and if you find it helpful, chip in from time to time if you are able to.

Also, one of the reasons I took much of my work private is because having a large Twitter account subjected my work to mountains of unsought opinions and unwanted criticism, and it’s exhausting to try to sift through all of that. And so, I may disable comments here on the site, and on Twitter from time to time to limit my exposure to some of that. Enjoy the work, I hope it’s helpful. If it’s not, just move along in a grim and disapproving silence.

Last Note: There are advantages to having private analyses: namely, if too many people expect a certain outcome, it’s less likely to happen. And so, at some point in the future, I reserve the right to privatize my work again. If by expressing my work publicly, sufficient interest is generated in a private group again at some point, I may go back down that road again in the future.

I Am Going to Slightly Shift the Focus of This Website

First of all, I would like to deeply thank all of you for having joined my website. I very much enjoy creating the work that I do, and I am grateful that you find it of some use to you in your own navigation of the markets. I really do enjoy the time I spend creating the work. I find it stimulating and rewarding.

When I created the website, in addition to the work you see me produce most often, I envisioned a library of charts for many people to make use of for sometimes longer-duration trades, but as I’ve worked through the new website’s growing pains over the last few months, I’ve come to realize that much of that work will go wasted. I am personally unable to take trades on every underlying for which I make a call, and I created that library expecting a bit of a larger audience who might make use of such a body of work. In other words, when I created the site, my thought was, in order to get things going, “More content is better than less.”

But, in the end, the audience is small, and I don’t really mind that; in fact, I kind of enjoy it.

As it stands, there are more tickers on this website than there are users, and it makes less sense for me to focus on updating calls for individual names that will mostly remain as a curiosity for people’s browsing. That said, much of that work did not go entirely to waste, as a vast majority of the calls I’ve made on individual names have hit the targets I expected them to. And so, it’s a bit of a portfolio for me now, a body of work serving as evidence that the technical analysis I conduct is reasonable and very often predictive. And that is good to be able to demonstrate to people.

The shift in focus will be in the following way: many of the calls on individual names will be relegated to the status of a side hobby. If I see a setup that I think is particularly promising, I will point it out when I am able to, but my main focus throughout each week will be:

  1. Regular technical analysis updates on the S&P 500, including frequently updated Elliott Wave counts
  2. Broad market analyses where I assemble market information which I believe gives insight into market direction
  3. Somewhat frequent technical analysis of the other major U.S. indices
  4. Chart requests from members will remain a priority

I write this post in order to be explicit about the shift I intend so that you can decide whether remaining as a member is suitable under these conditions. Regardless of your decision, I offer my kindest thanks and deepest gratitude for having joined while I’ve worked my way through figuring out exactly what it is I want to do here.

A Couple of Explanatory Notes Added to the About Page

I have added some explanatory remarks to the “About” page because what’s clear in my mind about the procedure I use for classifying my charts may not be clear to everyone else’s minds, so I thought it might be helpful to be direct and as clear as possible. So, I’ve elaborated on how I work through my charts. And instead of directing you to reread the entire About section, I will post the added paragraphs here below so that you can read just the added components.

The specific procedure I use for “categorizing”:

I want to explain to you the procedure I use when dealing with the calls I make so that when you locate a chart for a given underlying, you can better understand its status. I cover many instruments and it’s impossible for me to update each chart with a new post after every squiggle in the market. Most of the calls I make on individual names are pointing to something weeks or months away. My shorter-term calls are frequently confined to the US indices (but not always). I post updates to the indices (especially the S&P 500) almost daily.

When I make a prediction and generate a post, I first categorize it under “Active.” Now, I monitor all of the names for which I have an “Active” post on a daily basis. Each day, I walk down a watchlist that has all of the tickers with “Active” calls on them and I assess whether I think the call I made is still reasonable. So long as I feel that it is, then I do nothing. I leave the post as is, and you can assume that if you see a chart from three weeks ago, if it’s still categorized as “Active,” then I still believe that the call I made is reasonable, even if we haven’t yet rushed straight to the expected level. I feel that it doesn’t make a lot of sense for me to reiterate a given call that I’ve made, because it will populate the site with a lot of redundant content.

Now, over time, one of three things will happen:

  1. If we get to (or very close to) my target, I will update that post, add a screenshot showing the target being reached (or very nearly reached), and I will celebrate a victory by recategorizing the post from “Active” to “Successful Calls.” Most of the time, that’s it. I’m not making another call at that point. Typically, I need to then monitor the price action before I can determine a new target.
  2. If we deviate too far from my expectations, I will update that post, add a screenshot showing the target failing to be reached, and I will suffer my humiliation by recategorizing it from “Active” to “Unsuccessful Calls.”
  3. If I lose faith in a call I’ve made, but the price has not wildly veered off course (yet), then I will recategorize the original post under “Cancelled Calls.”

Now, when one of these events transpires, I can’t always announce each and every re-categorization, because it will inundate everyone with too much information. It’s generally my expectation that someone who is interested in a call that I’ve made will mark their own charts with targets I’ve provided and will be able to assess whether things are going according to plan without my having to update a particular chart every day. If you’re following a particular call closely yourself, it may be advised to check in on a given post throughout the week to see if it remains categorized as “Active” or not. If it’s not any longer, I will have updated the post with some kind of explanation.

In each of the these three cases, I will make the post available to the public. In the event that I do feel like a new call is warranted when one of the three things above happens, then I will generate an entirely new post and categorize that new post as “Active.”

I have just added a asterisk feature today:

I have also added “asterisks” to the right of each ticker for which I have an active call. In other words, if the ticker is present on the left, it means that I have, at some point, made a chart for that ticker. But, I may not have a present call for each and every ticker. When that happens, it’s because one of the three things listed in the section above has transpired, and I am in the process of monitoring the price action to see if something new develops that will give me confidence in making a new call.

Update on Website Search Functionality

Previously noted in this post, searching for tickers on the site was not ideal because password-protected posts were excluded from the results.

I have now been able to modify this functionality. Now all posts, regardless of whether they are protected or not, will show up in the results.

And just one quick note on the search feature: I deliberately precede all tickers throughout this website when I employ them with a dollar sign ($). Using that in the search field will help to eliminate unexpectedly wide results in some instances (for example, using “EEM” will return all posts in which I also use the word “seem,” etc., whereas using “$EEM” will limit those results to posts in which I am discussing the MSCI Emerging Markets ETF).

Tags for US Indices Are Now Consolidated

I’ve made an adjustment to how I tag posts that discuss the US indices. Previously, if I was dealing with a chart on $SPY, I would simply give it that tag. Same with $ES, etc. It was more or less chart specific. But, of course, that introduced a strange problem: if someone were looking for information on the S&P 500, regardless of the underlying instrument they were seeking information for in particular, clicking on one of those tags (in a post) or in the ticker list (in the sidebar), would end up giving them only a partial set of posts that ultimately all dealt with the same index. In order to get all the information available about that index, they would ultimately have to click through all links to $SPY, then $ES, then $SPX. And that is sort of absurd.

So, I’ve consolidated the way I tag them all. The links in the sidebar are now conglomerates, so they now are: “$SPY-$ES-$SPX,” “$QQQ-$NQ-$NDX,” “$IWM-$RTY-$RUT,” “$DIA-$YM-$DJIA,” and clicking on any of those conglomerates returns all posts on those respective indices. And clicking on any component (e.g., “$SPY“) within a post has the same effect.

This is something that’s bugged me for a little while now, and I hope this new method makes locating information easier.