According to my principal analysis (which of course could be wrong), $PLTR may have more downside ahead. The first leg down can be counted as a leading diagonal in five waves, so this counter-trend bounce should be a B wave (or a 2, it doesn’t really matter at this point—that’s what we get to test on the next step).
Once it finishes a 3-swing move to the box above (it’s still in the first swing), it should move towards the lower target in five waves. If it gets to the box, then it’s more likely a 3rd wave and not a C. If it goes in that direction but falls short of the box, then the correction may be over.
At this point, all I’m looking for at the moment is more up, then more down. It’s the magnitude of the next down that will tell us more.
[UPDATE]: I am cancelling this call. While it has moved in the direction of blue b as I expected, the structure of the move does not conform well with the nature of a B wave. It’s a clear impulse that is much too big (to be the first leg of a three-leg B wave). It is likely the beginning of a new bullish sequence. Since it’s 5 waves, it may now retrace to the lower orange box, and then go significantly higher taking out the prior high and then some.
I am having a difficult time counting $TSLA at the moment, but this chart pattern can support our efforts in the meantime. It appears to be a reasonably well-formed inverse. The measured move is noted.
[UPDATE]: This inverse has failed against my expectations and though we are still likely to move above the price that this stock was at the time of this post, I now do not believe we will get to the measured move target. Because the price remains roughly where it was when I made this post, I will file it under “Cancelled.” I have since written a new post detailing my revised views.
I first identified $FB as likely entering a third wave advance in this tweet on February 6th and it has since appreciated almost 40%.
Within that third intermediate (orange) wave, I expect that it is still in its 3rd minor (green 3). Since it has passed many fib extensions, we should look to the next two fibs for where it may stop. We have $406 and $432 (the 3.618 & 4.618 extensions, respectively). When it gets there, it should consolidate in its 4th minor (green) wave before advancing again to the end of the 3rd intermediate (orange) wave. That may take us to the orange target box.
[UPDATE]: I have revised this analysis here. I still expect these targets to be eventually met, but I am cancelling this particular call because of the changes I have made.
It looks to have completed a triangle “B” wave and so I would expect it to move lower from here in 5 waves. This blue c wave should have a fib relationship with the blue a wave. I have posted three of those relationships. Ideally we look for equal legs, which is the lowest target, but it is no requirement. I will try to update this if the first two waves down offer me greater clarity.
[UPDATE]: I have revised this view here. I am filing this post in “Cancelled.”
The selloff on $AAPL looks impulsive, so I would expect a second one to match it.
The move down from the 9/7 high looks impulsive. Either from here or from one more nominal new low, I would expect a rally to blue b followed by a second leg lower to the lower orange box for blue c, ideally to the lower end of that box.
[UPDATE]: Though we are still in the process of creating the low for blue a, and the general drift of the next move I am expecting remains up towards what I have labelled as blue b, I have revised this call here, and so am filing this call as “cancelled.”
As noted here, $CCL is in a very bearish configuration. It is in a large, multi-month bear wedge, and also in a smaller local one. It looks to have completed a triangle which we normally would interpret as a “B” wave connecting the two legs of a correction. The measured move for the second leg is noted below. Above $25 would cast doubt on this interpretation.
On my count, I believe that $NIO will need to make at least one more lower low in order to complete the correction from its July high.
The target I have pinned at just under $33 gets us a trend line strike and a good fib relationship between the internal legs of green 2, but it’s also 13% below us and it would make for a very deep 2. The minimum condition that needs to be met is taking out the August low. My projection is that a bottom of significance will form within that range leading to a rally that will eventually take out the July high.
[UPDATE]: I have revised this call here. Since I’ve bailed on the call above before any drama one way or another, I’m filing this under “Cancelled.”