Market Update for Wednesday, October 4th, 2023

Good afternoon, traders.

Yesterday, we had a lot of miserable price action, but that didn’t get us any lower today.

What SPX has done for now is come close to—but not quite to—the 200-day SMA:

And on that near-arrival it has begun a rally. Whether this rally has some real legs or not remains to be seen.

Within the confines of our head & shoulders interpretation, things look like this:

We came back in to retest the neckline from beneath and have initially reacted to it, but haven’t completely fallen apart yet either.

Within the confines of the giant bull flag interpretation, things look like this:

After initially losing the bull flag lower rail, bulls recaptured it today near the close.

For now, I have the following preference:

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So, we’ll see if that happens from here or not. The market could be bullish here at the 200-day. It’s a logical place to get a big relief rally. But if we don’t get that, I think we can go lower and that’s what I’m playing for for the moment, though I have stops in place.

One quick note: I am taking a short vacation with my family, so I will be gone for a few days. I may be in the Discord a few times while I’m gone, depending on signal strength, etc. But, we’ll see how the market plays out, and I will see you all soon again. Don’t crash without me. And if you do, pray for some signal strength in the woods so that I can cover.

I hope everyone has a fine evening, and a fine weekend as well. I will see if I can find some bears irl.