$SPX Evening Update

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I continue to anticipate the conclusion of this structure we’re in. And it can still be interpreted in two ways.

The very local price action today, as it turns out, may have been a little ending diagonal triangle, in which case that may have been the 5th and final wave of our impulse down.

If we are very bearish, that could have been “1 down” (in green), and we should expect some kind of consolidation or retracement for green 2. A typical place for it to go would be the orange box, after which we would plunge probably well below 3700:


But, I continue to have doubts about that bearish count. Because of how we’ve topped here with the extra wave for the CPI madness (among other things), I think there remains good odds that this is an expanded flat correction instead. And, just the same, the “C” leg of that could be done and if it is, we would expect to move up from here.

Initially I had thought today could have been a 1-2 in minuette (orange) degree, but because of the possibility of a triangle today, perhaps we don’t have that in yet. And if so, we may get that orange 1-2 soon, followed by the rest (3-5 in orange of blue 1).


All in all, I think the bulls have a good shot here. The way this is labelled, that 3rd orange wave (of blue 1) should have a gap in there, and that might be how we get over the 200-day SMA which is snaking through there close to the upper rail of my hypothetical stealth bull flag. If we gap over that, I bet we keep it for a while.

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