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The initial jobless claims were fewer than expected and GDP stronger than expected, and the market has reacted negatively to that (so far), using the playbook that this gives the Fed more room to tighten.
On the bullish count, if the decline isn’t terrible and if it reverses, this may be a 1-2 in orange, like this:
If he decline becomes much worse, I may end up having to conclude (with the majority of analysts) that the triangle I think I see at the lows is part of a countertrend bounce, perhaps making all of this rally a 4, like this:
And of course, if we move extremely sharply lower, some much more bearish options also exist, such as this being a B or a “2” in which case we never even managed to get to orange box before failing:
I favor the bullish view above, but we will have to see. I trade light over the holidays: I am modestly long via futures and I will simply be stopped out in the event of the bearish counts. I will see if I can gather any clues in the cash session.