$SPX Update

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I have been looking for this structure to be a “flat.” Partly due to how high-yield credit has been behaving in this topping process. If that is correct, and if it’s done at Thursday’s low, it may be possible to count the structure since then as a 1-2 in blue, with the “1” being a leading diagonal, and the “2” either done today or with a bit more still to come:


If that is the case, then when blue 2 is done, we should see a very strong rally.

However, things certainly feel weak, Tesla is crashing, and high yield credit suddenly deteriorated today and wiped out all of its prior recent lows, negating the bullish divergence it had formed against the S&P (discussed here for instance).

So, hum. If we’re destined for further weakness, but if this is still only a large pullback in an uptrend that is incomplete, it’s also possible that we haven’t finished Orange B.

And if so, perhaps we are still in the 4th blue wave of the decline. These can be long and complicated.


For counts like this to have worked, we really perhaps needed to move up more, and we haven’t, so, I’m not sure until I can see more. I don’t really have any convictions here.

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