$SPX Update

I will look at a couple of things. If the big orange “2” is already in (first chart from this weekend), then we are free to continue moving up. It’s not great that we haven’t gapped over the 200-day, and it doesn’t count terrifically well as an impulse wave from the 3800 area, and so I still think there is still a good chance that the big orange “2” needs another swing lower to complete.

I have been anticipating something like a bearish wedge up here ever since last Thursday and so far that’s been roughly what we’ve been doing, sort of congesting up here around the 200-day.

If we go up one more time and then fail dramatically, we might still be doing this:


But, we did hit that red major down trend line and reject from it (at least so far), and we went deeply into my orange box area of risk. And if we turn down sooner rather than later, there is another larger wedge that we may have completed.

And that one looks like this:


So, let’s see what happens. If we move down sharply from here, then I think I will assume green B is in and will begin counting green C. That should be composed of 5 blue waves and hopefully gets us a few hundred points lower.

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