$SPX Update

Not much I can do to update yesterday’s thought.

What started off as a terrific bull trap ended up getting almost completely reversed. Was it an act of desperation?.

We remain within the large green wedge, a structure which carries a bearish bias. One good feature for the bears is that we gapped under the major red trend line, which is one way we can lose it as support, despite our trading back above it again by the close. It is also a retest of 4000 from beneath, and so a failure here would be a rejection of that level.

It may be possible to continue to count this as a 1-2 down in blue, with this whipsaw being a complicated a-b-c in orange like this:


It could also be a nest of ones and twos, but for now at least, it won’t really matter (both would indicate a move lower).

It’s not an ideal way to count it, but I don’t have any other good ideas for the moment. So, let’s see if we move lower again. And I do sort of prefer it when ones and twos don’t look “textbook,” because the fewer who think we’re entering a third wave down the better, as the majority tends to miss them. But, we need to go lower if we’re going to do that, and we haven’t yet, so we’ll just have to see.

Have a good evening.

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