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A brief update on the longer-term discussion I had here. Apple has swept the liquidity under the late November low, and it may have completed an ending diagonal triangle today. I say may because there is another way to count that internally that will allow for one more low.
But, if it has completed this initial structure, it should rally soon and we may expect it to go to $145 or so.
Apple has long perplexed me this year. And usually when that happens, I like to spend more time observing, and so I haven’t tried to trade it in some time.
But, let’s look at it again now. Given some of the structures I see on other names such as financials, the New York Composite, and others, it is possible to discern a triangle on Apple at this time.
And if so, it may have spent the last few months in that complex structure. I also believe it has been in a long distribution range, and it may leave that soon.
So, if it’s a triangle, it should be a “B-Wave” (in the primary [pink] degree) and that means a “C” should follow, and the equal legs measured move for that is very close to $100, and it should proceed in 5 waves, and it could look about like this:
It doesn’t ultimately really matter if we try to count the structure as a zig-zag (as I tried here) or as a flat (which I have also entertained before, such as here). Since the last two lows are close to each other, it won’t ultimately make much of a difference for the coming target.
I am looking for a wave 2 of primary (pink) degree to be put in place here. Today is one candidate where that may have happened. If we finally roll over, I expect us to give this rally back somewhat quickly. I expect us to break below the 9/6 low for Orange 1, and then perhaps retest the trend line from beneath (for Orange 2), before ultimately moving to 3401 which is my target for Pink 3:
Read more “$SPX: A Few More Thoughts (And a Comment on $AAPL)”