Public Chart: The Very Dark $ADBE Situation

Now, I’m getting trolled a bit for being bearish while we have this squeeze, and I know that looks silly, and a lot of people like to think of me as often wanting to be bearish for the sake of it or something. But, really, it’s these structures. I’ve been bullish most of my life. You guys only know me from after the COVID crash when I started using social media. And yes, I was way too bearish there, but I had good reasons: they had just annihilated the world economy—so it seemed to me, and to many—and it didn’t feel like that had been priced in completely. And I didn’t give infinity QE enough credit. So, yes, I thought the rally out of that low was bound to fail. But don’t forget that I changed my mind and was bullish for most of 2021, and correctly so. I think it’s unfair to think of me as always wanting to be bearish.

And right now, things are very, very different. There’s just no way for me to interpret the Fed as being friendly right now. Earlier in the year, I was more open to a quick, one-and-done correction, at least in principle, but as these structures have become larger, there’s no good way to do that, so far as I can see right now.

And just look at this chart. It’s absolutely terrible. The structure it’s in right now is an awful one, and these very often fail.

ADBE

So at any rate, a whole ton of things look like this and I think it’s not good. A lot of things can still get cut in half from here.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Weekend Smorgasbord of Observations

I think I will simply walk through a pile of everything I see here.


1. No Matter How I Slice the S&P, I Think We Will Go Higher

There are 8,000 ways to examine the S&P here, but in general, I think they all still sort of point up next.

On the most bullish view, We have broken up out of a bullish wedge inside a bigger bull flag in a wave 1 & 2 in minor (green), then minute (blue), and then finally minuette (orange) degrees. On this count, we should be entering the most powerful central thrust of this impulse wave.

In support of this count, first at the lows, and then twice this week, the drops have felt awful, steep, sharp and abrupt. And that’s what “twos” feel like, generally. They are spooky, no one wants to buy them, and as a result they miss the “threes,” which is where the real money is made. So if we move 300-400 points next week in a real hurry, we might be doing something like this.

ES

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Behold, the Structures on Tech: $AAPL, $GOOGL & $MSFT

This has been a shit show. But, I’m feeling very optimistic tonight. It’s been very difficult looking for the low. However, in reviewing things this weekend, I am amazed by how many individual names made higher lows while big tech made new lows. That is very bullish, for the markets to support less important names like that. And in virtually all of the cases where those higher lows have been made, the rallies have been impulse waves.

For example, let’s look at $ADBE, which I have just added to my “Other Selected Counts” page. A beautiful, 5-wave impulse up, and a clear 3-waves back. The rally up from the 5/12 low had no overlapping waves, and with the rally today, the move since the 5/17 high now has overlapping waves. So, it’s an impulse up and a correction back. That means the trend is now up.

ADBE

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


This Same Chart Pattern Is Appearing on Many Dozens of Names; Here Are 20 Examples

The pattern is self-explanatory. I see it present on dozens and dozens of names. I will show you 20 examples of where I see it, and list about 10 other tickers where I see it (but without also posting the chart).

Now, with this pattern, it shows potential, not guarantees. I just find it interesting that I see it in so many places all at the same time. Could they all fail together? Yes. It is a pattern that you can see in a down trend. However, it is also a pattern you will often see at a very bottom. If these do play out, many, many dozens of names may have already bottomed.

$AAL

AAL

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$ADBE Has All the Needed Ingredients for a Top to Be in Place

My last call on $ADBE was here. It’s largely worked out, i.e., we got a continuation of the correction followed by a rally towards my target above. However, I am cancelling the call to the actual target box itself because of many things I’m seeing here in the markets as a whole.

And, with this one in particular, strictly-speaking, all that was needed for a high to be put in place was breaking above the September high, which we have now done (green arrow). Given the risk that we’re at or nearing primary (pink) 5 by making that new high, along with the other signs I’ve been talking about lately, I see no advantage for calling for much higher prices on this. So, in this post, I only observe that a significant high may be in but I make no new targets. I will need to watch this in the short-term prior to making a specific call.

ADBE


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Here Is My Interpretation of $ADBE

I believe that the magnitude of the sideways consolidation $ADBE made through last year and this makes it a candidate for a two (or four) of primary degree, correcting more in time rather than in price. The good news is that in this stock’s case (it’s not always the case), primary (pink) 3 and primary (pink) 5 both have approximately the same expected target ranges. This wave is subdividing nicely and should consolidate here for a while going as low at times as the bottom of the orange box beneath us before finally working its way to the upper target area.

ADBE

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.