I recently posted about Adobe here. In that post, I expected a strong decline soon, and while that hasn’t changed, I would like to write an update to account for the recent strength.

In that last post, I interpreted the structure is was lately in as a triangle (the green structure on the right), but the breakout suggests that it is a 3-wave structure for Pink B (instead of the 5-wave triangle). And the symmetry remains remarkable over the entire topping structure as a whole.

Like the breakdown at the end of Pink 4 in the spring of 2021 (the orange box on the left)—which was a shakeout prior to the next markup leading to the top—this structure has broken up (the orange box on the right)—which I believe is a shakeout prior to the next markdown I continue to expect.

Read more “A Quick Update on $ADBE”

Now, I’m getting trolled a bit for being bearish while we have this squeeze, and I know that looks silly, and a lot of people like to think of me as often wanting to be bearish for the sake of it or something. But, really, it’s these structures. I’ve been bullish most of my life. You guys only know me from after the COVID crash when I started using social media. And yes, I was way too bearish there, but I had good reasons: they had just annihilated the world economy—so it seemed to me, and to many—and it didn’t feel like that had been priced in completely. And I didn’t give infinity QE enough credit. So, yes, I thought the rally out of that low was bound to fail. But don’t forget that I changed my mind and was bullish for most of 2021, and correctly so. I think it’s unfair to think of me as always wanting to be bearish.

And right now, things are very, very different. There’s just no way for me to interpret the Fed as being friendly right now. Earlier in the year, I was more open to a quick, one-and-done correction, at least in principle, but as these structures have become larger, there’s no good way to do that, so far as I can see right now.

And just look at this chart. It’s absolutely terrible. The structure it’s in right now is an awful one, and these very often fail.

So at any rate, a whole ton of things look like this and I think it’s not good. A lot of things can still get cut in half from here.

My last call on $ADBE was here. It’s largely worked out, i.e., we got a continuation of the correction followed by a rally towards my target above. However, I am cancelling the call to the actual target box itself because of many things I’m seeing here in the markets as a whole.

And, with this one in particular, strictly-speaking, all that was needed for a high to be put in place was breaking above the September high, which we have now done (green arrow). Given the risk that we’re at or nearing primary (pink) 5 by making that new high, along with the other signs I’ve been talking about lately, I see no advantage for calling for much higher prices on this. So, in this post, I only observe that a significant high may be in but I make no new targets. I will need to watch this in the short-term prior to making a specific call.

I believe that the magnitude of the sideways consolidation $ADBE made through last year and this makes it a candidate for a two (or four) of primary degree, correcting more in time rather than in price. The good news is that in this stock’s case (it’s not always the case), primary (pink) 3 and primary (pink) 5 both have approximately the same expected target ranges. This wave is subdividing nicely and should consolidate here for a while going as low at times as the bottom of the orange box beneath us before finally working its way to the upper target area.

Read more “Here Is My Interpretation of $ADBE”