Revisiting $AMC from a Bullish Perspective

About halfway through this long article defending the bear case, I discussed the possibility that $AMC was in distribution. Part of that analysis depended on the unlikely way of counting the structure impulsively.

But now let me demonstrate to you the power of recognizing that many individual names may be in—strictly speaking—corrective structures, and yet still go way, way up. $AMC happens to be an excellent example.

Here are the charts on this stock from that article.

Point #1: it’s impossible to count it with any integrity as an impulse to the upside. If we’re in some kind of four, it’s just much, much, much too big here in time. It should have lifted off ages ago and it hasn’t.

AMC

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The Great Bear Case

The gamma squeeze, “cubic function” look to the last rally has given me great pause. I have spent a good deal of time thinking about it. I have shared my basic conclusions about it with you already, namely, that it may very well turn out to have been a finishing move, rather than a beginning move (I’ve discussed that here, for instance). But I am now increasingly concerned (excited?) that it may have been the finishing move.

And in fact, in answer to the question “Why on Earth did we go up like that?” I think the answer is essentially this: I think that was the total, utter, final capitulation of the bears.

I am going to run through a whole bunch of things in this article, just laying out pieces of evidence and observations. It is not my intention to sell you on the bear case; rather it’s a truth-telling expedition, in my opinion. I believe strongly in the bear case here, and I will share what I believe is the truth of the market. But it’s not my intention to persuade you, rather, to express what I feel is true.

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Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


$AMC Retracement May Mean Wave 2 Is Early

I know, I know, it’s ridiculous to call this in a market panic, but I have to call it as i see it. Last discussed here, I have been looking for $AMC to complete a 5-wave cycle and it may have early. The pullback today has reached a perfect retracement level and has just the right “look.” My target is now the orange box above.

AMC


[UPDATE]: This now looks like “5 down and 3 up,” and I don’t like it. That’s not what I would expect here in the bullish count. I am cancelling this call while we are still in the neighborhood of the orange box. I will need to monitor the price action from here for a bit prior to making another call.

AMC


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


$AMC Creepily Hitting My Targets, A Couple of Short-Term Projections

While the indexes are busy frustrating me, $AMC continues to respect my fib levels well. I was expecting a minute (blue) 4 to emerge, which should be followed by at least a nominal new high. We’ve come into the target range for that twice now, which is good, because wave fours often look like h’s. Here’s the picture if the count is right: we would expect some new high (I don’t have good target for that, and it can extend as far as it wants to) but that should be followed by a deeper pullback.

The alternative here is that my blue 3 is the blue 5 and the probability of that would increase if it found no support here.

AMC

 


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.