$AMZN Remains In Its Markdown Phase: Here Are Two Targets

For over a year, Amazon underwent a long distribution. And since failing from that structure, it has entered a markdown, and it does not look complete. They don’t take that amount of time to distribute a stock, then drop it slightly from that structure, only to prop it right back up again. We have a ways to go still.

In the decline, I see no fib relationships at the October low, regardless of which highs and lows I try to choose for the wave labels. That inclines me to believe we will head lower until we reach a good relationship.

Equality between Pink A and Pink C will happen at the bottom of the box, and a 78.6% relationship will happen at the top. Afterwards, we will likely see a much longer-term rally, probably something of a yawning arc back close to where we are now, before possibly failing again.

AMZN


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Weekend Article: A Look at the S&P 500, the Dollar, Bitcoin, Amazon and Tesla

Nothing has changed regarding my views all this week that lead me to believe this countertrend rally is ending. I spent much of the week seeking wave balance at these highs for instruments across the board, and we have some lovely structure that has developed. All of those relationships remain valid today as we opened little changed. The two most significant levels of balance for $SPX were 4003 and 4009 both of which we poked through during the first hour of today’s trading.

Super zoomed in, the S&P 500 counts well as an impulse wave down, and there is a retracement in the afternoon that is at least consistent with a wave 2 of a small degree, because there was balance right at the close for that small rally:

SPX

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


Some Fibos: $AAPL, $TSLA & $AMZN

I will show some examples of wave balance being put in here. If they stick, the structures look good here.

Apple:

AAPL

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


Some Weekend Thoughts Before the Abyss: Bear Porn Edition

I just want to organize a few thoughts this weekend. And I would like to say something obvious, something that should go without saying, but I want to make sure some folks aren’t upset.


I have been open to bullish outcomes for much of this year. Why? Well, it’s because I’ve lived through rate hike cycles before, and usually they’re not quite this bad (in fact this is by far the worst in history). And I also know that, historically, “technical” bear markets are just as common as long-lasting bear markets that go much deeper. And in April in particular, sentiment deteriorated so sharply that I became alive to the possibility that we may have been much closer to a bottom than I had at first believed possible. And so I wanted to remain open to that possibility—that the bottom could be at hand. Now I am changing my mind here in the short-term, but it’s almost entirely due to technical reasons. There are structures forming in the markets that are almost certainly very bearish. And I want to respond to those. So, I’m not trying to be edgy, or cute, or flip-floppy; I’m simply acknowledging that bear flags are bear flags until they are not. And many of these are well-defined. In fact, all year, one thing we have lacked is really good bearish structure on the way down. And now we have them, so we should pay special attention.


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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


Brief Market Update

The S&P 500 (cash) remains consistent with the views expressed this weekend (here) and last night (here).

From last week’s high, we can count an impulse wave to today’s low (the red 5-wave count), and we should be in a retracement for a “2” now. That “2.” may go as high as the orange box, but there are enough waves in place now that it may finish at any time. Let’s look at another name to see if that will help us here.

SPY

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


So Far So Good; Alternatives I See From Here Are Either: 1) Bearish, or 2) More Bearish

I don’t have a lot fundamentally to discuss this weekend. I will, however, run through a somewhat long list of technical features that I see on a variety of instruments.

It is still possible for the S&P 500 to have another leg up (discussed here) because the triangle did not break down and we began to take out some of the highs to our left (from this again), but, we perhaps did not take out enough of them, as the consolidation from 6/29 (orange ellipse pointed to below) is especially important. As it stands, the rally on Friday felt to me like short covering only, and we remain within “technical” bear market territory.

ES

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


Not Calling For This, Just Observing It

What originally clued me in to the super dark thought was actually Amazon. I had a good, working count on it for a while, generally behaving the way I wanted, but as the market made new lows across the board, it gave me this:

AMZN

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


Just About Everything I’ve Got Has the Same Look

Many of the things I watch are compatible with the same structure.

Some examples:

$AAPL

AAPL

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.