It’s Time for the Weekend Review: Wen Bears?

May 13, 2023 12:02 AMMay 13, 2023 1:04 PM Dereck's Trades1 Comment

It’s a difficult choice, what to write about this weekend, as we still haven’t gone anywhere. But, I think I’ve got a few things I can say, not all of which have been said recently, and I have some position changes I made today that I can also mention.

As always, it’s good to look at the basics first. We have this rising wedge, rising into the resistance of the 89-week SMA—from which we got a reaction—and the trend line from the August and February highs—which we’re glued to like my brain is glued to the dopamine released from the consumption of coffee.

The Weekend Review of the Markets: The Bears Continue to Have a Great Window of Opportunity Here

April 21, 2023 10:25 PMJune 9, 2023 8:25 PM Dereck's Trades3 Comments

Well, that was about the most boring session we’ve had in a long while. And it comes on the heals of a series of increasingly boring sessions. Up at these highs, we’ve had the VIX getting annihilated, and price is being squeezed from both the top and the bottom. We’re compressing, all higher lows and lower highs:

$SPX Evening Update

January 12, 2023 7:16 PMMarch 11, 2023 9:35 AM Dereck's Trades1 Comment

Ok, so let’s review what’s giving me anxiety for the moment.

The question for me is:

Was the technical high at the early December high?, or
Was the technical high at the mid December high?

And the answer to that matters and makes all the difference. I have been interested in the interpretation that places the technical high at the early December high, which would give us a flat from that high, giving us a 1-2 in intermediate (orange) degree. I liked that count because of things like strength in high yield, sentiment, etc., etc.—all the things I’ve been complaining about lately.

Now, if the “orange 1-2 is done count” is right, we should move up powerfully in a 3rd wave, and we are moving up, but

There’s always a but. I like that we’re moving up, and I was positioned for that. But, I know we need to enter a central third wave at some point and I don’t see that yet. I also know that if we’re going to keep the 200-day, we will probably need to gap over it, and all of that was set up nicely this week with the economic data and we stalled here instead.

And I also don’t like it when I can’t see a more obvious 1-2, and I wanted that, I wanted a nice a-b-c in minuette (orange) degree for blue 2, like this: