Just Talking Out Loud About Some Evidence: A Glance at $M, $BABA, and $META

I track a whole bunch of individual names, and I had to put some of that on hold because some stocks broke to new lows invalidating the counts I had been carrying. Names like Amazon, Adobe, even Facebook all made new lows and I have to wait to look for a new impulse wave before I can give a confident count on those.

But, I find it interesting, the selection of stocks that are still, wave by wave, hitting the right targets to justify bullish counts still (Alibaba, Macy’s, even Coinbase, and others).

I will show a few.

Macy’s, though deep for a “2,” pulled back just when I was expecting to to:


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Member Request: $BABA Update

A member has requested that we look at $BABA again. The request is a few days old—sorry for that. I have few COVID symptoms left right now, but my energy levels are running between 50% and 75% (on the best days), so I haven’t quite shaken it yet. I feel generally fine, but I’m super tired still. (And if I’ve missed anyone else’s request, remind me because I feel like I forgot to write myself a reminder note on one or two of them).

The long-term view is that it’s either finished a 2 of cycle (yellow) degree, or it’s about halfway done with it (in other words, done with the first large leg of a huge 3-leg correction). In either case, I would expect some kind of multi-month relief rally eventually.


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Member Request: An Update on $BABA

My last long-term look at $BABA was here, and I’ve been fishing for a wave 2 of cycle degree. At the time, it had reached its 50-61.8% retracement, but has since continued to sell. It’s now reached its 78.6% retracement which, though also a good place for wave 2, leaves us with a bit of a puzzle now. Now the whole move down, instead of looking like 3 waves, looks like 5. With only 3-waves in, the correction could have completed. But now with 5, we would expect that to be only one leg of a larger 3-swing move.

And perhaps that makes sense: it’s a 1-year selloff and that’s probably not enough to correct a 6-year bull market. So, the expectation here is that it will get a hefty bounce for primary (pink) B, that could coincide with the blowoff I am expecting in other equities, but then it should be followed by a second 5-wave impulse for primary (pink) C to complete cycle (yellow) 2.


A $BABA Update

In my last post on $BABA, I suggested that it may be putting in a low of very great significance. I will list my reasonings for that, based on the structure, and I will take a moment to explain those reasons, and add a quick note on the most local structure. (A member has asked for some updates, and I was going to soon anyways so this is perfect.)

  1. When we took out what I have labeled as primary (pink) 3, that was the decisive piece of evidence informing us that the prior structure had completed—in other words, it made it less probable for what I have labelled as pink 5 to subdivide into a new five-wave structure and extend back to all-time-highs.
  2. And then an examination of the structure from 2015 on revealed three peaks, so a 5-wave structure in itself, which is just what we would hope to see.
  3. And so, we would then expect a 3-wave correction of some kind, and we’re getting that so far (I’ve labelled those pink A-B-C).
  4. The next step is to ask: how deep are we going to go?, and since this must be a two, we should look to the 50-61.8% retracement of the move from the all-time low to the all-time high (the two arrows). And since we’re near there, this is about where we would expect a reaction higher.
  5. Now, we’ve gone deep enough in price to satisfy the conditions for a correction of this degree, but we do not yet know if we have also corrected enough in time.
  6. How we should try to know that is based on the nature of the next move: we should move in the direction of the orange box above, and if we do so in a 3-wave structure, we may expect a second decline taking out this low and taking more time, or if we move there in five waves, we may conclude that the low is in. In either case, we still should proceed up in price for a while.


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