Is the Bitcoin Pump a Clue?

To cut to the chase: I don’t know. But let’s discuss it.

Let’s do a quick review. I’ve been tracking it, and until tonight, it’s been tracking well. My assumption for the time being has been that it is in primary (pink) 5 (down), and that that wave should unfold in 5 intermediate (orange) waves. I believe the FTX blowup dump was wave 1 of those 5 waves, and I believed we were in orange 2. From the FTX dump, we had a rally for Green A, a decline for Green B, and a suitable rally that I suspected could be Green C (of Orange 2)—you can see the main gestures via the red arrows:

BTC

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$SPX Morning Idea

We are creating a “poor high” (if you’re unsure about what this is, you may read more about it here). We need to see an actual good reversal—preferably with an “excess high,” and so even if we do sell off some today, maybe these highs will be revisited.

If we don’t fall with some real drama, here is a variation of my count that will allow for some contraction in price up here, followed by another squeeze. It is still part of a broader head and shoulders pattern that I expect to unfold but it gives us a little more time (and space).

This contraction for “blue b” will allow for a mild selloff creating a flat-topped triangle (the green structure we’re in now), followed by one more rally to the target box that will close that big gap to our left (the thick red arrow in September):

SPX

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


A Few Fibs I Can See Here, and Some Other Things

I will just note a few things.

We had excellent fibs the other day (here). That inclined me to think we could have been at the top of the rally, but we’ve gone a little higher. And yet, looking here, too, the fibs are not terrible.

On the largest scale, Orange C = 78.6% the length of Orange A:

SPX

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.


$SPX Update: Bear Porn Edition

I am going to run through a quick argument tonight. I will try to be brief, and to the point, and we’ll see what happens over the coming days.

This remains possible:

SPX

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.