Weekend Smorgasbord of Observations

I think I will simply walk through a pile of everything I see here.


1. No Matter How I Slice the S&P, I Think We Will Go Higher

There are 8,000 ways to examine the S&P here, but in general, I think they all still sort of point up next.

On the most bullish view, We have broken up out of a bullish wedge inside a bigger bull flag in a wave 1 & 2 in minor (green), then minute (blue), and then finally minuette (orange) degrees. On this count, we should be entering the most powerful central thrust of this impulse wave.

In support of this count, first at the lows, and then twice this week, the drops have felt awful, steep, sharp and abrupt. And that’s what “twos” feel like, generally. They are spooky, no one wants to buy them, and as a result they miss the “threes,” which is where the real money is made. So if we move 300-400 points next week in a real hurry, we might be doing something like this.

ES

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Now We Cookin’

My expectations yesterday that we may only just be entering the heart of the move still look promising today. I was hoping to see a gap and go, and we sort of got that, but it’s not yet quite the kind of gap I want to see to announce the 3rd of the 3rd.

And so, it possible that today was yet another 1 and 2 (of subminuette [red] degree):

SPY

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Some General Things I Am Glad to See Here

There are many things I like here. I will point out three.


First, the dollar. I last discussed the dollar index here. In that, I pointed out the lack of divergence at its high, and its having broken out. But, now, we have the divergence, and it’s lost that breakout.

Zoomed out:

DXY

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


A Brief Look at the German $DAX

After the utter carnage the German $DAX endured after Russia’s invasion and the resulting effects this had on energy policy in Europe, let’s see how it looks now.

And in fact, there may some room for optimism. Though the selloff was sharp, and though it remains below a down trend line, the rally from the lows has been impressive and it now sits well above all of the prior highs from 2018-2020.

Furthermore, nice, sharp selloffs with sharp rebounds lay the potential for inverses, which I have depicted below. As absurd as it is for me to point these out here given the news flow, not doing so is a mistake I won’t repeat again after 2020 (I saw many, but I refused to believe them given the pandemic and lockdowns). This time, let’s at least acknowledge their presence.

If it rallies again, it may go at least 23% from here, if not even further.

DAX


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Two Other World Indices That Look Like They Need a Further Decline: $FTSE and $DAX

Because of the mounting risk signals I have been seeing, I have gravitated toward the view that $ES may need to make one more splash to put in this big “E-Wave” of its even bigger “B-Wave” (you may review the look of that decline here). Other world indices look compatible with this, and I will display two of them, the $FTSE and the $DAX.

Here is the $FTSE as I see it:

FTSE

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Couple of Additional Data Points

I’ve been sprinkling my posts today with things I believe are telling us we are bullish here (such as oil, a reference to bitcoin, a reference to Apple’s structure—here, and here). Here’s a couple more.

First, I noted previously that the $DAX suggested markets would go lower (first here, then referred to again here). Now, it’s not moved down impulsively. And so, let’s refine the count. I think we will have to do something like this for it. I think we got a huge impulse down for minor (green) A, then a triangle green B (instead of the great big B here), followed by a tiny green C.

I think it’s now primed for a 1-2-1-2 pump. Or, “The $DAX says Übergehen.” The other count was too obvious and so everyone’s trying to play it and everyone’s going to get blown up.

DAX

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


The $DAX Says, “Untergehen”

Unlike the US indices, which show a sloppy, corrective decline beginning in late November, the German $DAX has gifted us with a beautiful impulse wave. And impulse waves never stand alone (unless they are the last leg of a flat, which this is probably not).

And furthermore, it has then gifted us with a far more obvious 3-wave bounce to the expected 50-61.8% retracement of the prior decline. I also believe that its version of the “B-Wave Thesis” places it in an expanding triangle, and it’s quite possible for the 1st and 2nd waves of a big 5-wave decline for minor (green) C to have already been put in. If this is the case, a precipitous selloff should follow.

DAX


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


The $DAX: Swing Count, Retracement Zone and Target

The $DAX has entered a retracement zone consistent with a correction of some degree (I have labelled it as an intermediate 2, but that remains to be seen).

In any case, I see a seven-swing overlapping structure from the highs, which is consistent with a correction. It has kissed the 23.6% retracement of the prior advance and is diverging. At a minimum, we may expect a rally from here heading to the orange box above.

DAX

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.