$YM Structure & Target

The Dow futures have some structures that resemble those found on the other indices I discuss more regularly. I have labelled a few of them on the chart.

Locally, there is some good bullish consolidation, the “Little Bull Flag.” A successful breakout targets the measured move, which may be enough to break it out of the “Big Bull Flag.” I’ve noted that move with the “pole.”

YM


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Will the Boomer Index Save Us? A Quick Observation on $YM

All of the points made here remain in play. And $BTC did, in fact, react to the level discussed here. That said, both the S&P and the Naz have left their respective bull flags discussed here and we have yet to see a sharp reversal signifying a change in momentum. One last structure that is still in play is a large bullish wedge on the Dow futures:

YM

That’s where it’s stopped this morning (at least so far), and if the market is going to stage a strong recovery, it could be here. If it does not, I don’t have much choice but to continue to expect some kind of relief somewhere in the wide range discussed in the first chart of this post.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Weekend Observations on the Stock Market: Bear Porn Edition

Though I have been determined to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for as long as possible (bubbles can go on far longer than most of us can think is even sane), cracks first appeared, and now there are plenty of additional outright crevices at this point.

Let’s look at a variety of things.

My working hypothesis for the moment is that the S&P 500 may be forming a large bear wedge, perhaps even replicating the one found at the top of the dot-com bubble (discussed here, for instance). And so far, the rejection of 4600 continues to support that thought:

ES

Read more “Weekend Observations on the Stock Market: Bear Porn Edition”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Weekend Stock Market Analysis: What Now After the Pump?

The basic alternatives are this:

  1. The lows are in and we’ve entered a new, long-term bullish structure
  2. The lows are not in and we will revisit them

Early in the week, I suggested that—at least temporarily—the lows could very well be in, and so far that’s played out. And during the course of the pump, I discussed my reluctance to look for the pump’s conclusion (here) and I also discussed the bullish potential it had (here) and so far, that’s all been not entirely misguided.

But, we also still face something of a contradiction here:

  1. On the one hand, we have lots of data points suggesting to me that we aren’t strongly likely to be in a long bear market: we have had no yield curve inversion (and even if we had, these often precede recessions and bear markets, and often by quite some time), sentiment is very bearish, etc., etc.
  2. But we also haven’t really seen a good capitulatory low (volume spike on the e-mini S&P futures contracts, $VIX spike, equity put-to-call ratio surge).

This leads me to remain open to a retest of the lows, though I will also accept no retest, as this rally really is quite impressive and could indicate to us a change in trend.

All that taken as a given, let’s look at some charts.

Read more “Weekend Stock Market Analysis: What Now After the Pump?”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Three Charts that Continue to Incline Me to Caution

As a follow up to my post from earlier, I want to point out a couple of observations, one more on the S&P 500, one on Apple and one on the Dow. In all 3 cases, these assets are at resistance in various forms and it’s at least worth pointing out.

Now, on the S&P, I’ve been using a channel from the COVID crash low through the January 24th low, which is a bit arbitrary, but the 1/24 low seemed significant, and at least in the short-term, recapturing that channel will tell us something important. We’re right at it now (green arrow), and it’s not exactly the strongest recapture: more like we’re barely hanging on to it. Reentering the channel with great vigor and then retesting it from above would be preferred (we may still get that, but until we do, we should note that we have not yet). Today’s rally was a bit less than I was expecting (I know it was big, but given the rally off the 2/24 low, I was expecting something to begin looking like that rally).

SPX

Read more “Three Charts that Continue to Incline Me to Caution”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Couple of Count Updates to Account for the Lower Lows

Since indices overnight have made new lows, I will need to update some counts I have recently provided for $ES and $YM (here and here). Assuming we’re not crashing, we can modify the structures to accept the lower lows as I’ve noted below.

I know it sucks trying to catch falling knives, but I don’t yet see enough signals suggesting that the ultra-bear count is the best one here. I think it remains more likely for the time being that we’re bottoming somehow for this big green 2.

$ES (note the channel support here—that goes all the way back to the COVID lows):

ES

Read more “Couple of Count Updates to Account for the Lower Lows”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$YM Elliott Wave Count

Here is how I am inclined to count the Dow futures ($YM). The target for the expected minuette (orange) 3 is the target box, but given the look of the structure from here, it may extend to either of the two other targets above the box as well.

If I see another triangle in my lifetime I am going to hang myself.

YM


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


The Great “Bull” Case

I am open to a big pivot here. In “The Great Bear Case,” I began pointing to the mounting and troubling signs in the markets and I added thoughts here, and here (and in a few other places as well). That wasn’t all for naught as we soon entered a terrific corrective period. Those signals pointed to a topping process and in such an expensive market, we must remain open to the possibility that any particular top isn’t just a top but rather the top. And so I was open to that. So what’s changed?

Well, for starters, this is what I wanted to see. A real expansion of range to the downside. I think I even referred to that as a “murderous expansion of range” at one point. Doing so would allow us to interpret the move down as a genuine impulse, from which we would have no doubt about what was coming. But we never got it. I set conditions and they weren’t met.

Furthermore, Twitter has provided me with an invaluable insight into participant sentiment. And in the early stages of the decline, I was full on bear-tard and got so much pushback. It was delicious. It gave me confidence that people were, in fact, hyper bullish there and that we would continue the decline (and we did). But in the last two drops (in which we barely made new lows) a huge swing in sentiment happened and people (so it seems to me) swerved wildly to the other extreme. Everyone is one foot out the door. Markets just don’t top that way. And now that I’m announcing my renewed bullishness publicly, again, I’m getting tremendous pushback. What we need to see is a huge impulse down in which everyone sighs with relief and says, “That’s the much needed correction we’ve been waiting for.” That’s when it’s all over. And that’s not here. Not even close.

Let’s do some charts.

I first noted that $QQQ formed a high-probability triangle here and that’s still good. And that leads us to the problem of what to do with $ES, which is difficult to count here. I had been viewing the move as a leading diagonal, but Friday messed things up:

  1. The green arrow low should have been the overthrow low, the final leg of the structure
  2. But if so, we should have exited the structure in a much larger wave two and the orange arrow high is much too small for that to be the case
  3. But it would have to be since we made a new red arrow low

ES

Read more “The Great “Bull” Case”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Bear Flags and Frothing Bullishness: Local Structure on $YM

I’m getting about 20-30 comments every day saying things like this ad nauseam: “Christmas rally,” “You’re early, bro,” “Too soon,” “Not yet,” “Patience,” “One more high, bruh,” “5000 first, then we drop,” “Dude, your timing is off,” “b-but the Fed,” “b-but corporate buybacks,” “b-b seasonality” and on and on and on and on.

And yet, we sold off sharply at the highs (a warning), $JNK and $OIL both look like shit, and we’ve had some successful bear flags of late, which I haven’t seen in a long time. We had a nice, big one on $ES that did just what we like them to do. My members are also watching one on $RTY (here), and now we even have this bear wedge on $YM as well:

YM

I have rarely seen so many people in such a froth to get in long at any price in my life. Give me some bullish structures and I might, at the very least, consider it. Until then, nah thanks.

Read more “Bear Flags and Frothing Bullishness: Local Structure on $YM”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.