Public Chart: $DXY Count and Target

The decline off the 5/13 high looks impulsive. I have labelled that as minor (green) 1. The index is fussing at a multi-year trend line, after failing (so far) to find support on it (the green trend line running across the middle of the chart).

There are enough waves in place to consider minor (green) “2” complete, but minute (blue) “c” (of that 2) may also make one more nominal new local high if it needs to.

The target for minor (green) 3 is the orange box below.

DXY


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Quick Morning Notes

I continue to remain skeptical of what I believe is the consensus here. That said, $ES has made little overnight progress and has gotten tied up at these trend lines (green), instead of outright recapturing them.

If we fail to begin moving up sharply, we may go to the lower bull wedge trend line (red). That’s disappointing because that’s then a mere 100 points from everyone’s primary target, and so it would mean they’ve sort of been right all along.

I’m not quite sure how I would need to interpret that, as the majority is necessarily wrong. Could it mean that everyone is hoping to buy that level and they’ll be wrong¬†about that, i.e., that that level will actually not be a bottom but rather a top? That’s a scary thought. But, I have to at least be open to it, because we keep falling, and if we’re falling, it’s because not enough people are short.

ES

Read more “Quick Morning Notes”


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Important $DXY Observation

If it feels like the whole market is at an important juncture, it’s because it very much is. The dollar index has arrived at a trend line that has marked the end of late 2016 correction and the COVID crash as well.

A breakout here would spell serious trouble for markets all over the world, and yet, if it’s the end of a major structure (as I have it labelled, but I don’t know if that’s right), it could spawn a new and very long period of dollar weakness, which would support rallies in many asset classes.

DXY


Note: When my work is first published on this website, it is made available to patrons who support my work through my Patreon account. Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.