Tag: $F

So Far So Good; Alternatives I See From Here Are Either: 1) Bearish, or 2) More Bearish

dereckcoatney2 Comments

I don’t have a lot fundamentally to discuss this weekend. I will, however, run through a somewhat long list of technical features that I see on a variety of instruments.

It is still possible for the S&P 500 to have another leg up (discussed here) because the triangle did not break down and we began to take out some of the highs to our left (from this again), but, we perhaps did not take out enough of them, as the consolidation from 6/29 (orange ellipse pointed to below) is especially important. As it stands, the rally on Friday felt to me like short covering only, and we remain within “technical” bear market territory.

ES

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

Weekend Smorgasbord of Observations

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I think I will simply walk through a pile of everything I see here.

1. No Matter How I Slice the S&P, I Think We Will Go Higher

There are 8,000 ways to examine the S&P here, but in general, I think they all still sort of point up next.

On the most bullish view, We have broken up out of a bullish wedge inside a bigger bull flag in a wave 1 & 2 in minor (green), then minute (blue), and then finally minuette (orange) degrees. On this count, we should be entering the most powerful central thrust of this impulse wave.

In support of this count, first at the lows, and then twice this week, the drops have felt awful, steep, sharp and abrupt. And that’s what “twos” feel like, generally. They are spooky, no one wants to buy them, and as a result they miss the “threes,” which is where the real money is made. So if we move 300-400 points next week in a real hurry, we might be doing something like this.

ES

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

Three Charts That Make Me Think We’re In Something Entirely New

dereckcoatney1 Comment

About a year ago, I detected a fundamental shift in a few names that I felt might give us clues as to where we’re going. I want to revisit that thought today.

What you saw in that tweet is a breakout that may signal a major shift in the economy as we’ve known it. Perhaps it is a shift in the nature of globalization brought on by the pandemic.

But, in each of these cases, these major US manufacturers all did something interesting. Their stocks have been in declines in some cases for decades but then that may have now all of sudden changed. It appears to me that they have all broken trend. Their trends have been down, and they have been so during the long period of the decline of US manufacturing. However, if their trends have now changed (institutions know what’s coming before we do, and they play the long game), then perhaps the decline of US manufacturing is also changing.

Some examples.

$GM, despite not quite looking like it’s been in a downtrend, it is, in a phantom way, as their shares pre-GFC were in the 70’s. That said, the rally from the COVID lows is the first time it’s produced a strong impulse wave in many, many years. And, it’s returned to the 61.8% retracement of that advance, which makes it an excellent candidate for a wave “2.”

GM

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

An Update on $F

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After my last call on $F made here worked (we got the target I was looking for and then some), I have had to monitor the price action before making a new assessment. That time may be about now.

I think we may have finished minute (blue) 3 today, and we may see a pullback for minute 4 before rallying a final time for minute 5. An appropriate place for it to visit may be the old high from last June, as that may create what I believe may become the lip of the cup of a cup and handle formation. After that, we may then see a pullback for minor (green) 2, followed by (if I’m right) a long journey to $25-$30.

F

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.

$F Bullish Wedge Breakout and Wave Count Target

dereckcoatney1 Comment

The bull wedge on $F noted here is breaking out.

It is also pushing though its primordial trend line. The immediate target (for blue wave 3) in noted, though I expect it to eventually make new all-time highs.

F

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Note: When articles are first published, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few weeks or so), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced (or to join my Discord chatroom), please consider becoming a patron. Note that there is a 7-day free trial period. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page.