This structure looks crystal clear. It’s clearly corrective in nature. We closed that old gap, fine, fine, whatever. Minimum target is noted on the chart.

It sucks that the relationship between Green A and C was 2:1 instead of the more common 1:1 (which is why I’m looking stupid this week), but it doesn’t change the fact of the structure’s nature. I expect this choppy thing we’re in now to simply be distribution as a lot of people expect the worst to now be behind us.

I cannot guarantee that it’s not going to give us an even weirder relationship between the legs (like 2.618 to 1), but that’s getting ridiculous. 2:1 is plenty. This is a great candidate for the end of the move.

My last post on $FB was here. If that long-term view is correct, then this local count below may also now be in play here. Below the little orange box we’re in now calls this into question. But, if there is support in this range, it may be about to embark on a 3rd wave to the upside that could carry it to around $250 (or higher).

I will grant that this seems unlikely given the look and feel of the market today, but if this is the bottom of a wave 2, it’s the wave that no one wants to buy (because of fear in the market) and so I count that in favor of this count.

My last post on $FB was here. In that post, I suggested that a correction of cycle (yellow) degree may be completing. A further revisiting of the range identified in that last post has produced a strong rally, and the structure counts well as complete.

So long as it stays above the orange box beneath us, we may assume that it has entered its third wave of cycle degree. That wave targets the orange box above, roughly $700. The move from here to there should proceed in a 5-wave advance, and we would expect it to take several years.

I will update this from time to time with shorter term structural developments as the emerge.

I last discussed $FB here. In that post, I upgraded the count to a nest of ones and twos because the depth of the recent selling was more akin to a 2 than the 4 I had previously expected. Now, why would one want to do a nest like that? Well, for one, in a market that just will not die, it seems prudent. And, at least from the COVID crash lows, we only have three swings, like this (green arrows):

Read more “A Look at the $FB Fractals”

In my prior call on $FB made here, I stated that I believed it was entering a 4th minor wave correction, which should have been somewhat limited in scope. I suggested that afterwards, it should go on to make new highs.

The correction has become larger than expected, but we still do not have a 5-wave move to the upside, so I am going to upgrade the count degrees into a more bullish configuration. So, the new analysis is that this correction is a nested 1-2, and the upper targets posted should still be met, and likely significantly surpassed with time.

Read more “$FB Analysis Update, Count Upgrade”

I first identified $FB as likely entering a third wave advance in this tweet on February 6th and it has since appreciated almost 40%.

Within that third intermediate (orange) wave, I expect that it is still in its 3rd minor (green 3). Since it has passed many fib extensions, we should look to the next two fibs for where it may stop. We have $406 and $432 (the 3.618 & 4.618 extensions, respectively). When it gets there, it should consolidate in its 4th minor (green) wave before advancing again to the end of the 3rd intermediate (orange) wave. That may take us to the orange target box.

[UPDATE]: I have revised this analysis here. I still expect these targets to be eventually met, but I am cancelling this particular call because of the changes I have made.