Green Shoots?

So, I’m just going to rattle off some things I see today in a list. They may be promising signs, but there’s still no telling for sure yet as we remain deep down in this lower range and it will be better if we start moving up, which we haven’t really done much of yet.


Bitcoin, as discussed late last night just before I went to bed to enjoy my sleepless nightmares, did, in fact, have a strong reaction to that fib, up now about 11% after touching it and briefly piercing it:

BTC

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$FB Local Count, Target

My last post on $FB was here. If that long-term view is correct, then this local count below may also now be in play here. Below the little orange box we’re in now calls this into question. But, if there is support in this range, it may be about to embark on a 3rd wave to the upside that could carry it to around $250 (or higher).

I will grant that this seems unlikely given the look and feel of the market today, but if this is the bottom of a wave 2, it’s the wave that no one wants to buy (because of fear in the market) and so I count that in favor of this count.

FB


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


Let’s Examine $FB and Speculate About a Target

My last post on $FB was here. In that post, I suggested that a correction of cycle (yellow) degree may be completing. A further revisiting of the range identified in that last post has produced a strong rally, and the structure counts well as complete.

So long as it stays above the orange box beneath us, we may assume that it has entered its third wave of cycle degree. That wave targets the orange box above, roughly $700. The move from here to there should proceed in a 5-wave advance, and we would expect it to take several years.

I will update this from time to time with shorter term structural developments as the emerge.

FB


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


A Look at the $FB Fractals

I last discussed $FB here. In that post, I upgraded the count to a nest of ones and twos because the depth of the recent selling was more akin to a 2 than the 4 I had previously expected. Now, why would one want to do a nest like that? Well, for one, in a market that just will not die, it seems prudent. And, at least from the COVID crash lows, we only have three swings, like this (green arrows):

FB

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$FB Analysis Update, Count Upgrade

In my prior call on $FB made here, I stated that I believed it was entering a 4th minor wave correction, which should have been somewhat limited in scope. I suggested that afterwards, it should go on to make new highs.

The correction has become larger than expected, but we still do not have a 5-wave move to the upside, so I am going to upgrade the count degrees into a more bullish configuration. So, the new analysis is that this correction is a nested 1-2, and the upper targets posted should still be met, and likely significantly surpassed with time.

FB

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$FB Still in Third Wave Advance of Intermediate Degree

I first identified $FB as likely entering a third wave advance in this tweet on February 6th and it has since appreciated almost 40%.

Within that third intermediate (orange) wave, I expect that it is still in its 3rd minor (green 3). Since it has passed many fib extensions, we should look to the next two fibs for where it may stop. We have $406 and $432 (the 3.618 & 4.618 extensions, respectively). When it gets there, it should consolidate in its 4th minor (green) wave before advancing again to the end of the 3rd intermediate (orange) wave. That may take us to the orange target box.

FB


[UPDATE]: I have revised this analysis here. I still expect these targets to be eventually met, but I am cancelling this particular call because of the changes I have made.


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.