Weekend Smorgasbord of Observations

I think I will simply walk through a pile of everything I see here.


1. No Matter How I Slice the S&P, I Think We Will Go Higher

There are 8,000 ways to examine the S&P here, but in general, I think they all still sort of point up next.

On the most bullish view, We have broken up out of a bullish wedge inside a bigger bull flag in a wave 1 & 2 in minor (green), then minute (blue), and then finally minuette (orange) degrees. On this count, we should be entering the most powerful central thrust of this impulse wave.

In support of this count, first at the lows, and then twice this week, the drops have felt awful, steep, sharp and abrupt. And that’s what “twos” feel like, generally. They are spooky, no one wants to buy them, and as a result they miss the “threes,” which is where the real money is made. So if we move 300-400 points next week in a real hurry, we might be doing something like this.

ES

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Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


An Update on $FDX

My last post on $FDX was here. In that post, I discussed the longer-term structure and the target that such a structure and count yielded. In this post, I will now zoom in quite a bit. As the market continued to weaken, this stock did not do so. It has stayed right where it was, in a low range.

From the low made on 5/2 which entered the long-term target range for a large-degree wave “2” (the huge orange box below on this chart), it has generated a respectable leading diagonal and has had a 3-wave pullback, followed by another rally. This entire low range looks like a Wyckoff pattern of accumulation. We won’t know that for sure until we rally out of the range, but the count suggests that we could.

So, if we do have a 1-2 of minute (blue) degree complete, and a 1-2 of minuette (orange) degree also complete, we should see a strong rally for the 3rd of the 3rd that should take us in the direction of the orange box above us. Doing so will help to validate this short-term count, the longer-term count linked to above, and my general views on the entire market.

I will begin keeping this count updated on my “Other Counts” page going forward for a while.

FDX


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$FDX: Count, Structure, Long-Term Target

I last discussed $FDX here, identifying the probable 5-wave advance from the COVID low being complete. Since then it has consolidated in (so far) a 3-wave structure, is at an appropriate fib retracement zone, and has formed a very large bullish wedge. If the markets do become very bullish here, this may rally in a third primary wave whose target is the orange box above.

But, as with all such potentials, it’s only that. If we continue to see market weakness, and this does not break up, this wedge may either fail, or if it starts to rally, but then fails to get followthrough, it may enter a range or create a new structure. But, at this place, there is a good risk/reward because of the fib we’re at. That orange box gives us a good place for a stop. Below that calls this count into question.

FDX


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.


$FDX Probably Entering Correction of Significant Degree

There are five waves up, then a kaboom. It seems indisputable that it is entering a correction of primary (pink) degree. This could take a long time and proceed in multiple stages. For comparison, look at the momentum stocks and how long they’ve taken to correct. seven, eight months maybe. I believe those momentum stocks are finishing their primary twos. I think $FDX is just part way through its. Maybe halfway or so.

Now, the expected target is the orange box below. But it may go as low as it wants to, up to and including the COVID crash lows (that deep is unlikely). RSI is confirming this move, so it’s not a bottom yet, imo. It should stop soon, consolidate, then make new lows, with bullish divergence. That will likely lead a bounce of some significance. But then it should grind it’s way lower again. That’s when they will start re-accumulating, and it will be time consuming while they bore everyone back out of the stock.

Then, when everyone has given up, then we start to go to pink 3. If big pink two goes lower than where I’ve guessed it, then big pink 3 will come down a bit, too, these are just initial estimates based on typical fib relationships.

I’ll try to keep an eye on this to anticipate when it may be ready to bounce. Those can be hella fun to play.

FDX

Read more “$FDX Probably Entering Correction of Significant Degree”


Note: When articles are first posted, most of them are made available only to my Patreon supporters (I do try to publish some public posts on occasion). Over time (usually after a period of a few months), I make all of the work public. To gain access to my work when it is produced, please consider becoming a patron. More information may be found on my About page and on my Patreon page. In a nutshell, Tier 1 members ($20/mo.) get access to the articles, Tier 2 members ($35/mo.) get access to those, plus counts on about 20 other instruments, plus Discord server access.