Alrighty, there are a lot of things I want to discuss, so I’ll just dive right in. We’re seeing some delicious selling, and so we need to ask: Is this it? And if not, then how serious is it? And I will try to address those in this article.
First, Is this it?. I don’t know yet, to be blunt. And as much of me that wants this to be it (because I am bearish by nature), I am not yet convinced that it is it. And I will present some evidence that questions whether this is really it.
Now, for the Great Liquidity Thermometer, I have been warning that it risked failure and with it equity markets (e.g., here). The frustrating part has been that Bitcoin often leads, and I’ve been watching it closely for signs that it would give up that head and shoulders pattern neckline before equities took a bath, but it held on to that level for as long as humanly possibly before finally taking a bath concurrently with equities.
At any rate, it’s given given us something more of an actual plunge—finally—but now how does that plunge look? Well, on the one hand, we have no idea yet if it’s finished. It could still be well within the move. If it is, we will want to see much lower prices still, as the H&S pattern’s measured move is somewhere deep down around $12-22K. And yet, I will note two features of the plunge so far.
The first feature is the volume profile. Bitcoin’s little plunge so far has taken it (unsurprisingly) to a POC (point of control, red line, the price at which the greatest volume has traded in this timeframe) and it has a huge volume node it will need to work through in order to go lower:
Read more “So How Bad Are Things? Weekend Market Update”
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